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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
TEX

TEX

58-55

4
5
SEA

SEA

60-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
29,510 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TEX 4 · SEA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0021010004
SEA012200005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Texas Rangers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Adolis Garcia

Adolis Garcia

RF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX58-55
4
5
SEA60-53
TEX58-55·SEA60-53
TEX

TEX

58-55

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44112101
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
3-33231110
SPRINT26.735
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44000001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000002
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-33011000
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000001
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-33000001
Team6-3232464217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0455353
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
2.0100020
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0000020
Team8.0555393
SEA

SEA

60-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33100012
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000002
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000000
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33111101
SPRINT25.310
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22100011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33112101
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000001
Team5-2929555339
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. EvansL. Evans★SP
5.0533031
C. VargasC. VargasRP
2.0111031
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0000000
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000110
Team9.0644172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    95 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.1 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      36%·91.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      39%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·78.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      9%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      31%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      23%·88.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • L. Evans
    80 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      30%·89.0 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.1 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      52%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      55%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      18%·81.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 6-1

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5today

Season series

SEA wins series 10-3

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
May 3SEASEA13@TEXTEX1
May 3SEASEA2@TEXTEX1
May 4SEASEA1@TEXTEX8
Jun 28SEASEA7@TEXTEX6
Jun 28SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Jun 29SEASEA6@TEXTEX4
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TEXTEX
A. Garcia

A. Garcia

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Evans

L. Evans

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H

How it ended

SEA beat TEX 5-4. Crawford's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

SEA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+25pp→ 65% WP

Seager · homered to center (396 feet), Smith scored.

SEABottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+26pp→ 61% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to right center (391 feet), Raleigh scored.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 3-5
+27pp→ 77% WP

Crawford · homered to right center (408 feet), Canzone scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0021010004
SEA01220000—5

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Polanco 1

2
2

Inn 3

Seager 2

Rodr 2

1
2

Inn 4

Tellez 1

Crawford 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
SEA

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  2. T9

    Langford struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

    +14pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  4. T9

    Haggerty caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  5. T9

    Haggerty caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  11. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Wyatt Langford

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  12. T9

    Haggerty ran for Pederson

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  13. T9

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  14. T9

    Pederson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, A. García out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

    +10pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  18. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Joc Pederson

    · ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  19. T9

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  20. T9

    A. García walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

    −11pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  28. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Adolis Garcia

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  29. T9

    Muñoz relieved Ferguson

    ·

    TEX 4·SEA 5

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 4·SEA 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

4

Runs

5

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

14

TB

15

2

HR

3

1

BB

3

7

K

9

7

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 98
    184
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 97
    195
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 97
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    187
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs