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Live · 4
  • MLBMid 3
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    -17.7pphigh
  • MLBTop 4
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +51.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6SD
NYM

NYM

62-46

1
7
SD

SD

59-49

Petco Park · San Diego, California
45,088 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

NYM 1 · SD 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000100001
SD100001507

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 69-50
61%Last 30 · 332-209
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 98
    195
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 98
    130
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    192
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    187
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.6± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off New York Mets, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jose Iglesias

Jose Iglesias

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM62-46
1
7
SD59-49
NYM62-46·SD59-49
NYM

NYM

62-46

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000011
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000003
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-22000000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000010
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.513
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33100011
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-33010011
SPRINT26.428
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11001001
SPRINT25.411
Team4-3131141048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
5.0311040
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.2555210
C. DevenskiC. DevenskiRP
1.1111101
Team8.0977351
SD

SD

59-49

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33110011
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-22210010
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44113101
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44022000
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000000
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
2-33120010
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44110000
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-44000002
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-33112001
Team9-3131797135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. BergertR. Bergert★SP
4.0211440
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000010
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0100000
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000010
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
1.0100010
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.0000010
Team9.0411480

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

1

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7today
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5

Season series

SD leads series 2-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7today
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5
Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H

SDSD
J. Iglesias

J. Iglesias

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

R. Bergert

R. Bergert

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SD beat NYM 7-1. Merrill's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

SD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 53% WP

Torrens · singled to right, Baty to third.

SDBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 80% WP

Merrill · tripled to right, Arraez scored.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 1-4
+10pp→ 95% WP

Díaz doubled to left, Cronenworth scored and Iglesias scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000100001
SD10000150—7

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · SD won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Merrill 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Marte 1

0
1

Inn 6

Merrill 1

0
5

Inn 7

Machado 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
SD

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  2. T9

    Torrens grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  7. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Luis Torrens

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  8. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  9. T9

    Baty struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  17. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  18. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  19. T9

    Mauricio grounded out to second, Vientos to second.

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  24. T9

    Yuki Matsui pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  25. T9

    Matsui relieved Marinaccio

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  26. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  27. T9

    Vientos singled to left.

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 1·SD 7

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

7

4

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

4

TB

16

0

HR

1

4

BB

3

8

K

5

18

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483