MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIA

HOU

64-51

MIA

56-57

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

10,073 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.4± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

HOU 4 · MIA 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4
MIA	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
C. Correa★SS	3-5	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
J. Sanchez★RF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
J. Altuve★2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Walker★1B	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	1	1
SPRINT25.920
V. Caratini★C	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
SPRINT24.22
Y. Diaz★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Trammell★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Smith★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Dubon★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.428
J. PenaSS	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	12-37	37	4	12	4	1	3	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

3-5

1-5

1-5

2-4

2-3

1-4

0-2

0-4

1-4

1-1

Team

12-37

	Pitching
S. Arrighetti★SP	3.2	11	5	5	1	5	1
H. NerisRP	1.0	1	1	1	3	2	1
B. SousaRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0
B. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. OrtRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	8.0	14	6	6	5	7	2

Pitching

Player

3.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
X. Edwards★2B	4-5	5	2	4	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
K. Stowers★LF	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
SPRINT2622
A. Ramirez★C	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.354
L. Hicks★C	1-5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
O. Lopez★SS	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
J. Marsee★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
H. Hernandez★LF	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
SPRINT28.483
T. Johnston★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Pauley★3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
SPRINT26.326
J. Sanoja3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	14-36	36	6	14	6	2	5	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI