MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAD

LAD

62-45

CIN

56-51

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

33,589 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.5± 3.7low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 1.7high
Andy PagesLAD
2.0± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
1.1± 1.6low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CIN

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.708

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.74

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · CIN 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	5
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. BettsSS	.240	4	3	2	0	0	1	0
S. OhtaniDH	.276	3	1	1	2	0	2	0
T. HernándezLF	.254	5	0	2	2	0	0	3
F. Freeman1B	.292	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.282	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.195	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
H. KimSS	.304	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. RojasSS	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OutmanCF	.103	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	9	5	0	4	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.276

.254

.292

.282

.195

.304

.250

.200

.103

.211

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Y. YamamotoSP	7.0	4	1	1	2	9	101
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
B. TreinenRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	2	25
J. DreyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	6	2	2	5	12	145

Player

Y. YamamotoSP

7.0

101

A. VesiaRP

1.0

B. TreinenRP

0.2

J. DreyerRP

0.1

Team

9.0

145

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.221	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
E. De La CruzSS	.283	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
A. HaysLF	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.269	2	1	0	1	0	2	0
S. SteerLF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
W. BensonRF	.213	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	6	2	0	5	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. BurnsSP	5.2	6	3	3	1	10	91
S. MollRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BarlowRP	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	29
T. RogersRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	18
L. RichardsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
B. SuterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	13	161

Team

LAD

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.