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Live · 4
  • MLBTop 3
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    -17.7pphigh
  • MLBTop 4
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +51.0pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +45.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+5SD
NYM

NYM

62-47

0
5
SD

SD

60-49

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,627 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

NYM 0 · SD 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
SD022000015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 69-50
61%Last 30 · 332-209
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 97
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    65
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    130
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    100
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off New York Mets, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Ronny Mauricio

Ronny Mauricio

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Gavin Sheets

Gavin Sheets

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM62-47
0
5
SD60-49
NYM62-47·SD60-49
NYM

NYM

62-47

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT25.513
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT26.941
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000000
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-22000002
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-33010001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33000001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000000
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-11000001
Team3-30300300010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
3.2842231
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.1000120
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000010
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000100
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0111120
Team8.0953581
SD

SD

60-49

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33210011
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44020010
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-55022001
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44001001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010012
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000001
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-44100000
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-22112111
SPRINT26.735
M. MaldonadoM. Maldonado★C
2-44120001
Team9-3333595158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
7.0200070
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000020
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0100010
Team9.03000100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    79 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.3 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.6 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.5 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      32%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Raley
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·98.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      31%·84.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.3 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • Y. Darvish
    76 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      20%·86.0 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·87.0 mph·63% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·72.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.7 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      1%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Adam
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      31%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·98.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

9

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5today

Season series

SD leads series 3-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5today
Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYMNYM
R. Mauricio

R. Mauricio

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

SD beat NYM 5-0. Machado's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

SD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 55% WP

Cronenworth · struck out swinging.

SDBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 74% WP

Machado · singled to left, Maldonado scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 88% WP

Sheets · homered to right center (427 feet), Iglesias scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
SD02200001—5

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · SD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Machado 2

0
2

Inn 3

Sheets 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Merrill 1

0

Inn 9

NYM
SD

Play-by-play · 510 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  2. T9

    Lindor grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  6. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  7. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  8. T9

    Vientos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

    +0.5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  14. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Mark Vientos

    · ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  15. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  16. T9

    Nimmo doubled to center.

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  19. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  20. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  21. T9

    Taylor grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  27. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  28. T9

    Suarez relieved Adam

    ·

    NYM 0·SD 5

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 0·SD 5

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 0·SD 5

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SD

Home

0

Runs

5

3

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

4

TB

12

0

HR

1

0

BB

5

10

K

8

5

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.6± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.