MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CIN

LAD

63-46

CIN

57-52

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

32,976 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.1%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.4%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.5± 3.7low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 1.7high
Andy PagesLAD
2.0± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
1.1± 1.6low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CIN

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.708

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.76

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

LAD 2 · CIN 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
CIN	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. BettsSS	.240	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. OhtaniDH	.269	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. SmithC	.325	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
F. Freeman1B	.297	2	1	1	2	1	2	1
T. HernándezLF	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.196	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.103	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	2	1	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.269

.325

.297

.254

.281

.196

.250

.500

.103

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. OhtaniDH	3.0	5	2	2	2	4	51
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
E. SheehanSP	3.2	1	3	0	3	5	72
B. TreinenRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	5
Team	8.0	8	5	2	5	12	143

Player

3.0

1.0

3.2

0.1

Team

8.0

143

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. LuxLF	.269	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. McLain2B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. De La CruzSS	.282	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. HaysLF	.277	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
N. MarteRF	.275	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.235	1	1	0	0	0	3	1
S. SteerLF	.242	3	1	2	2	0	1	1
W. BensonRF	.211	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.254	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
C. JoeRF	.213	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	8	5	0	5	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. MartinezSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	7	103
L. MeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	12
S. MollRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	15
S. BarlowRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	7	2	2	4	8	157

Team

LAD

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.