HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

63-45

5
4
CIN

CIN

56-52

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
36,135 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

LAD

league avg

CIN

CIN

.788

OPS

◀

.717

.705

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.312

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.19

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.68

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · CIN 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0200002015
CIN0003100004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1W. SmithLAD+54.4pp
  2. 2T. GlasnowLAD−45.9pp
  3. 3E. PaganCIN−31.7pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsSS
.2434120011
S. OhtaniDH
.2725000004
W. SmithC
.3255022002
F. Freeman1B
.2965131001
T. HernándezLF
.2544010001
A. PagesCF
.2814010001
T. Edman2B
.2264112101
M. RojasSS
.2504010002
E. RuizRF
.1902000001
- M. ConfortoDH
.1950100020
- J. OutmanCF
.1030100000
Team3751151314

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GlasnowSP
4.04445384
J. DreyerRP
0.2100009
B. CaspariusRP
1.10000114
A. BandaRP
0.2100007
A. DiazRP
1.1000008
A. VesiaRP
1.00000212
Team9.064456134

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. LuxLF
.2703010010
M. McLain2B
.2193000011
E. De La CruzSS
.2824011000
A. HaysLF
.2813110011
J. FraleyRF
.2501112110
S. SteerLF
.2393000011
N. MarteRF
.2763111100
W. BensonRF
.2093000001
J. TrevinoC
.2584110000
- T. StephensonC
.2361000001
- S. Espinal3B
.2502000000
- C. JoeRF
.2131000000
- R. HindsRF
.1161000001
Team32464256

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. LodoloSP
5.162211194
S. BarlowRP
0.2100007
G. AshcraftRP
1.03221227
T. SantillanRP
1.00000010
E. PaganRP
1.01111125
Team9.01155314163

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    84 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      36%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Diaz
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      75%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      71%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.9 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • N. Lodolo
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      35%·82.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.9 mph·17% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • FC
      67%·97.0 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.4 mph·38% whiff
    • FS
      32%·84.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      40%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      29%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·90.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Jul 28LADLAD5@CINCIN2
Jul 29LADLAD5@CINCIN4today
Jul 30LADLAD2@CINCIN5

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Jul 28LADLAD5@CINCIN2
Jul 29LADLAD5@CINCIN4today
Jul 30LADLAD2@CINCIN5
Aug 26CINCIN0@LADLAD7
Aug 27CINCIN3@LADLAD6
Aug 28CINCIN1@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
T. Edman

T. Edman

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

CINCIN
J. Fraley

J. Fraley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.1 IP · 11 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat CIN 5-4. Smith's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 71% WP

Edman · homered to right (342 feet), Freeman scored.

CINBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 51% WP

Fraley · homered to right (405 feet), Hays scored.

LADTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+38pp→ 82% WP

Smith · doubled to left, Outman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0200002015
CIN0003100004

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

5

Runs

4

11

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

16

TB

14

1

HR

2

3

BB

5

14

K

6

20

LOB

13

Win probability

CIN vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · CIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Edman 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Fraley 2

0
1

Inn 5

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Smith 1

LAD
CIN

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  3. B9

    Stephenson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  8. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  9. B9

    Stephenson hit for Lux

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  10. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  11. B9

    Trevino fouled out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  15. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Jose Trevino

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  16. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  17. B9

    Hinds struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

    −6pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  23. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Rece Hinds

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  24. B9

    Vesia relieved Díaz

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  25. B9

    Outman in center field.

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  26. B9

    Hinds hit for Benson

    ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  27. B9

    Pages in left field.

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·CIN 4

  30. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·CIN 4

Player projections

CIN vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.4± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.7± 3.9low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Max MuncyLAD
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.9± 1.6high
  • Max MuncyLAD
    2.0± 2.7high
  • Matt McLainCIN
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    0.9± 1.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle TuckerLAD
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.1± 1.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(CIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.