HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBMid 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

44-62

2
1
HOU

HOU

60-47

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
28,786 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

HOU

HOU

.742

OPS

◀

.715

.733

.323

OBP

.319

.321

5.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.56

4.72

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.91

1.40

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 2 · HOU 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000011002
HOU0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Houston Astros and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. FinneganWSH+28.9pp
  2. 2C. WalkerHOU−28.8pp
  3. 3J. MeltonHOU−26.7pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cooper Hummel

Cooper Hummel

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsSS
.2723000012
A. CallLF
.2744000003
J. BellDH
.2263100013
N. LoweDH
.2263011010
P. DeJong3B
.2383010002
D. LileLF
.2364000002
B. House3B
.2544000003
R. AdamsC
.1694121101
J. YoungCF
.2432000012
- L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2621000001
Team312421419

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. LordRP
5.11111259
K. PilkingtonRP
0.21000111
L. GarciaRP
1.01001114
J. FerrerRP
1.01000213
K. FinneganRP
1.00000110
Team9.041127107

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TrammellCF
.2713010000
J. Altuve2B
.2774000002
V. CaratiniC
.2614000000
C. Walker1B
.2364010000
J. MeltonLF
.2193000011
Y. DiazC
.2442100010
M. DubonSS
.2583011001
B. MatthewsCF
.1433000002
Z. ShortSS
.2052000000
- C. HummelLF
.1601010000
- S. Whitcomb3B
.1070000000
- C. McCormickLF
.2501000001
Team30141027

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
F. ValdezSP
6.031121297
B. KingRP
1.01111217
B. AbreuRP
1.00001322
J. HaderRP
1.00000211
Team9.0422419147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • B. Abreu
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
  • B. King
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.3 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      32%·80.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hader
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SI
      54%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      46%·82.9 mph·80% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1today
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1today
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
C. Hummel

C. Hummel

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat HOU 2-1. Adams's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 34% WP

Lowe · doubled to right, Bell scored.

WSHTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 51% WP

Adams · homered to right (348 feet).

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 56% WP

Diaz · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Melton out at second, Walker to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000011002
HOU0000100001

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · HOU won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Dub 1

1
0

Inn 6

Lowe 1

1
0

Inn 7

Adams 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
HOU

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  3. B9

    Melton struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  10. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Jacob Melton

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  11. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  12. B9

    Walker grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

    −10pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  16. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  17. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  18. B9

    Caratini grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

    −12pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  20. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  21. B9

    Finnegan relieved Ferrer

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  24. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  25. T9

    Adams flied out to second.

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

    +0.5pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

  30. T9

    Josh Hader pitches to Riley Adams

    ·

    WSH 2·HOU 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

2

Runs

1

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

9

TB

6

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

19

K

7

10

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.3± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Isaac ParedesHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.7%

    P(HOU win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.2%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.