MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8KC

49-52

124

CHC

59-41

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,117 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.4%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.6± 1.3high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.6± 1.0high
Michael MasseyKC
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.693

OPS

.715

▶

.722

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.332

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.59

4.48

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.31

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 12 · CHC 4 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	1	0	2	4	0	1	4	0	12
CHC	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. India2B	.245	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	5	1	1	2	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.264	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.293	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.253	5	2	2	4	2	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.149	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
N. Loftin2B	.215	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.205	4	3	2	2	1	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.258	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	12	14	10	4	1	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.245

.288

.264

.293

.253

.149

.215

.205

.258

.200

.375

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. CameronSP	6.0	7	4	4	0	7	101
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
A. HoffmannRP	2.0	2	0	0	2	1	32
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	8	148

Player

N. CameronSP

6.0

101

J. SchreiberRP

1.0

A. HoffmannRP

2.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Hoerner2B	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KellyC	.276	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
I. HappLF	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
M. Busch1B	.285	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Turner1B	.217	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.216	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.175	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	4	2	2	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. BrasierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. BrownRP	4.0	7	7	6	0	4	63
C. FlexenRP	3.0	7	5	5	1	0	59
J. Berti3B	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	14	12	11	1	5	138

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.