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    SEA 36@TOR 37
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8SF
SF

SF

56-56

12
4
NYM

NYM

63-49

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,876 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 12 · NYM 4 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF00430000512
NYM1000100024

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    266
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    292
    6(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    248
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 92
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    93
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into New York Mets and beat them, 12–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF56-56
12
4
NYM63-49
SF56-56·NYM63-49
SF

SF

56-56

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44221011
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
3-44234110
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-55000002
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33100022
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-55112001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-55223100
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
4-44240010
SPRINT27.148
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-55212001
SPRINT24.32
G. McCrayG. McCray★CF
0-33000002
Team13-3838121312259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. WhisenhuntC. Whisenhunt★SP
5.1321241
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.2100030
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0200010
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0221100
Team9.0842381
NYM

NYM

63-49

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33111111
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44010000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000001
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-44000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT25.513
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33100012
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-33022010
SPRINT25.716
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11000000
Team8-3434483138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. MontasF. Montas★SP
4.0777231
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
4.0200150
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2355211
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0.1100000
SPRINT26.428
Team9.0131212592

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • C. Whisenhunt
    75 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.6 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      37%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      43%·77.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      43%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Butto
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      52%·86.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      63%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      37%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • F. Montas
    92 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      32%·95.5 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      21%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    58 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.9 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      63%·99.3 mph·27% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Torrens
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FA
      100%·68.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

12

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4today

Season series

NYM win series 4-2

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 3rd Inning

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

C. Whisenhunt

C. Whisenhunt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Warren

A. Warren

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat NYM 12-4. Devers's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 74% WP

Lindor · homered to left (368 feet).

SFTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 44% WP

Bailey · singled to center, Lee scored.

SFTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+28pp→ 72% WP

Devers · homered to right (403 feet), Bailey scored and Ramos scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF00430000512
NYM1000100024

Period scoring

SF won 3 · NYM won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
0

Inn 3

Devers 3

3
0

Inn 4

Bailey 1

0
1

Inn 5

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

5
2

Inn 9

Schmitt 3

Alvarez 2

SF
NYM

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 12·NYM 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  3. B9

    Taylor fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  7. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  8. B9

    Taylor hit for Nimmo

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  9. B9

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  10. B9

    Alvarez singled to right, Vientos scored and Mullins scored.

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  12. B9

    Mullins to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  13. B9

    Mullins to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  15. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 4

  16. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Mullins walked, Vientos to third on passed ball by Bailey.

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  23. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  24. B9

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  25. B9

    Vientos doubled to center.

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 12·NYM 2

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

12

Runs

4

13

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

20

TB

13

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

9

K

8

13

LOB

13

Player projections

NYM vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    60.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872