MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5TEX

ATH

42-60

TEX

51-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

26,430 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
61.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.9%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

TEX

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.700

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.38

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.62

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.71

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATH 2 · TEX 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
TEX	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. ButlerRF	.242	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. WilsonSS	.318	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.281	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
B. RookerDH	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.240	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
T. SoderstromLF	.258	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. AndujarDH	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.235	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
G. Urshela3B	.227	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	5	2	1	5	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.242

.318

.281

.275

.240

.258

.285

.215

.235

.227

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LopezSP	5.0	4	5	5	3	6	93
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	18
S. NewcombRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	24
M. MillerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	8.0	7	7	7	3	9	138

Player

5.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

8.0

138

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. HelmanCF	.143	3	1	1	4	1	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.268	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.230	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. GarciaRF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. LangfordLF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. HigashiokaC	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.276	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.242	2	3	2	1	1	1	0
C. Freeman3B	.200	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	7	7	7	2	3	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LeiterSP	6.0	4	2	2	4	7	95
H. MilnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	7
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	5	2	2	5	9	125

Team

ATH

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.