• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 5
  • MLBBot 2
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    +9.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 3
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +53.5pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ARI 0@SEA 2
    +42.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
  • NBA40.1 - 4th
    SA 109@OKC 103
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1NYM
CIN

CIN

52-48

2
3
NYM

NYM

56-44

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,981 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

CIN 2 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN1000000102
NYM001010013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 97
    252
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 95
    252
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    253
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    54
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 93
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Cincinnati Reds, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Connor Joe

Connor Joe

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Luisangel Acuna

Luisangel Acuna

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN52-48
2
3
NYM56-44
CIN52-48·NYM56-44
CIN

CIN

52-48

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44100000
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33110012
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33011010
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33001001
SPRINT28.483
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010000
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
1-22010000
C. JoeC. Joe★RF
1-11010010
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
1-22010000
G. LuxG. LuxLF
0-22000001
Team7-3232272037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
6.0622150
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.1111210
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
0.2000010
Team8.0733370
NYM

NYM

56-44

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000001
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33100010
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010000
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-22010010
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44011000
SPRINT26.428
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.891
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-11011010
SPRINT29.597
P. AlonsoP. Alonso1B
0-11000001
Team7-3030373037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
6.0410140
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0100010
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
0.2011110
E. DiazE. DiazRP
0.1100110
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0100000
Team9.0721370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    95 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·92.9 mph·16% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      48%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·78.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      35%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.4 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    93 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      28%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.9 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      62%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garrett
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      54%·92.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      8%·90.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Jul 18CINCIN8@NYMNYM4
Jul 19CINCIN5@NYMNYM2
Jul 20CINCIN2@NYMNYM3today

Season series

CIN leads series 2-1

Jul 18CINCIN8@NYMNYM4
Jul 19CINCIN5@NYMNYM2
Jul 20CINCIN2@NYMNYM3today
Sep 5NYMNYM5@CINCIN4
Sep 6NYMNYM3@CINCIN6
Sep 7NYMNYM2@CINCIN3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 8th Inning

CINCIN
C. Joe

C. Joe

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
L. Acuna

L. Acuna

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat CIN 3-2. Steer's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

NYM vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 75% WP

Acu · ña doubled to left, Baty scored.

CINTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+23pp→ 51% WP

Steer · hit by pitch, McLain scored, Hays to second, De La Cruz to third.

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 78% WP

McNeil · doubled to right, Soto to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN1000000102
NYM00101001—3

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · NYM won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Steer 1

Torrens 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  2. T9

    Friedl popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  10. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  11. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  12. T9

    Lux grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fraley out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

    +8pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  17. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Gavin Lux

    · ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  18. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  19. T9

    Fraley singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

    −8pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  27. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Jake Fraley

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  28. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Marte flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

    +6pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·NYM 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

7

TB

9

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

7

K

7

13

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    51.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.