MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SD

55-45

MIA

46-53

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

11,828 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Michael KingSD
5.7± 2.2low
Griffin CanningSD
4.8± 2.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.0high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 2.7high
Ty FranceSD
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 2.9low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 2 · MIA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.483
L. Arraez★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
M. Machado★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Sheets★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Bogaerts★SS	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
J. Merrill★CF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.688
J. Cronenworth★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Iglesias★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Maldonado★C	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	2

Team	5-32	32	2	5	2	0	3	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

1-4

0-4

0-4

1-3

1-4

0-4

0-3

1-3

Team

5-32

	Pitching
R. Vasquez★SP	4.1	7	1	1	1	0	1
A. MorejonRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. AdamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	9	1	1	1	4	1

Pitching

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
X. Edwards★2B	3-4	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
J. Sanchez★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
O. Lopez★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.381
A. Ramirez★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Stowers★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT2622
L. Hicks★C	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.614
H. Hernandez★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Pauley★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Myers★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	9-33	33	1	9	1	1	1	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

X. Edwards★2B

3-4