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FINAL+1MIA
SD

SD

55-46

3
4
MIA

MIA

47-53

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
11,621 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

SD 3 · MIA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0010000023
MIA200001014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    218
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    252
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    193
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    124
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    281
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    172
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off San Diego Padres, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Gavin Sheets

Gavin Sheets

1B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Agustin Ramirez

Agustin Ramirez

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD55-46
3
4
MIA47-53
SD55-46·MIA47-53
SD

SD

55-46

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44000002
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-22110010
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44012002
SPRINT28.688
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44010000
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-44000003
M. MaldonadoM. Maldonado★C
1-33110001
T. BrooksT. BrooksLF
0-11000000
Team7-3434373019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
5.2833150
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0100010
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.1211120
Team8.01144280
MIA

MIA

47-53

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010001
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44010001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT28.381
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-44220001
SPRINT27.354
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-33011012
SPRINT2622
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
0-33000000
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-22010000
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-44010002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1-22011000
SPRINT28.381
Team11-33334113028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
5.2511060
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.1000010
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000010
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0222110
Team9.0733190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • S. Kolek
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      39%·93.1 mph·28% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Morgan
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      42%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      31%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      47%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • E. Cabrera
    86 pitches·34% CSW
    • CU
      31%·84.6 mph·54% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      21%·95.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      6%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      40%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      35%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      33%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 21SDSD2@MIAMIA1
Jul 22SDSD3@MIAMIA4today
Jul 23SDSD2@MIAMIA3

Season series

SD leads series 3-2

May 27MIAMIA3@SDSD4
May 28MIAMIA6@SDSD8
May 28MIAMIA10@SDSD8
Jul 21SDSD2@MIAMIA1
Jul 22SDSD3@MIAMIA4today
Jul 23SDSD2@MIAMIA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 9th Inning

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
A. Ramirez

A. Ramirez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.000 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIA beat SD 4-3.

Win probability

MIA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 31% WP

Maldonado · doubled to left.

MIATop 6th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 70% WP

Bogaerts · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Sheets to second, Arraez out at home.

SDTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+17pp→ 32% WP

Merrill · doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0010000023
MIA20000101—4

Period scoring

SD won 1 · MIA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Arraez 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Sanoja 1

2

Inn 9

Merrill 2

SD
MIA

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  2. T9

    Brooks popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  5. T9

    Ronny Henriquez pitches to Trenton Brooks

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  6. T9

    Brooks hit for Maldonado

    ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  7. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  8. T9

    Iglesias struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

    +10pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  12. T9

    Ronny Henriquez pitches to Jose Iglesias

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  13. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  14. T9

    Cronenworth flied out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

    +13pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  17. T9

    Ronny Henriquez pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  18. T9

    ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  19. T9

    Merrill doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

    −17pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  23. T9

    Ronny Henriquez pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    SD 3·MIA 4

  24. T9

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  25. T9

    Bogaerts doubled to left, Sheets to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

    −9pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  28. T9

    Ronny Henriquez pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    · ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  29. T9

    ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

  30. T9

    Sheets walked.

    ·

    SD 1·MIA 4

    −3pp

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

11

TB

15

0

HR

0

1

BB

2

9

K

8

15

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.2%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.