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Live · 5
  • MLBBot 2
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    +9.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 3
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +53.5pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ARI 0@SEA 2
    +42.6pplow
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    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
HOU

HOU

65-51

5
3
NYY

NYY

61-55

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
46,027 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 5 · NYY 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
HOU20000000035
NYY00000200013

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 100
    187
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    184
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into New York Yankees and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
HOU65-51
5
3
NYY61-55
HOU65-51·NYY61-55
HOU

HOU

65-51

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-44000001
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44110011
SPRINT25.818
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-44222110
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-33021020
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-55000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-55110001
SPRINT25.513
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
2-55122100
SPRINT2744
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-55010001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33010001
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000000
Team10-39395105247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
5.1422150
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.2000020
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000020
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
2.0110100
Team10.0532290
NYY

NYY

61-55

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000000
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44100001
SPRINT28.175
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-22000002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44011001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22100011
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33110001
SPRINT25.18
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
0-22000000
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
Team5-3535353029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
5.0722131
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
1.2100110
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.1000110
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000110
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0232011
Team10.01054472

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • H. Brown
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.8 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      10%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hader
    36 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      39%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Sousa
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      94%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.4 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    97 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      21%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      12%·97.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      43%·88.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      4%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      26%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Williams
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      44%·82.2 mph·40% whiff
  • C. Doval
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      62%·97.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·98.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3today
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3today
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1
Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 10th Inning

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat NYY 5-3. Trammell's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

NYY vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 49% WP

Wells · doubled to right, McMahon to third.

HOUTop 10th Inning · 3-2
+24pp→ 69% WP

Correa · singled to center, Altuve scored.

HOUTop 10th Inning · 5-2
+32pp→ 92% WP

Trammell · homered to right center (383 feet), Diaz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
HOU20000000035
NYY00000200013

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · NYY won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Altuve 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

3
1

Inn 10

Trammell 2

Volpe 1

HOU
NYY

Play-by-play · 627 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  2. B10

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  3. B10

    Grisham lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

    −9pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  9. B10

    Josh Hader pitches to Trent Grisham

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  10. B10

    Caballero ran for Stanton

    ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  11. B10

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  12. B10

    Stanton walked, Volpe to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

    +5pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  14. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  15. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  20. B10

    Josh Hader pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  21. B10

    Stanton hit for Wells

    ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  22. B10

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  23. B10

    Goldschmidt flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

    −6pp

  24. B10

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  25. B10

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  26. B10

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  27. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  28. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  29. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

  30. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·NYY 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

5

Runs

3

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

17

TB

7

2

HR

0

4

BB

2

7

K

9

18

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.