HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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FINAL+1MIA
SD

SD

55-47

2
3
MIA

MIA

48-53

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
15,137 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

MIA

MIA

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.707

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.324

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.11

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

SD 2 · MIA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0001000102
MIA100020003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off San Diego Padres, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. SanojaMIA+25.8pp
  2. 2D. CeaseSD−25.5pp
  3. 3S. AlcantaraMIA+24.4pp

SD · top performer

SD
Jose Iglesias

Jose Iglesias

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2624010000
L. Arraez2B
.2854110000
M. Machado3B
.2854021001
G. Sheets1B
.2544000000
X. BogaertsSS
.2684010000
J. MerrillCF
.2603110001
J. Cronenworth2B
.2403000001
T. Wade2B
.2062000000
E. DiazC
.1962000001
- J. Iglesias2B
.2391011000
- T. BrooksLF
.1501000000
- M. MaldonadoC
.1900000000
Team32272004

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. CeaseSP
5.04323595
K. HartRP
2.01000224
D. MorganRP
1.0000004
Team8.053237123

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
X. Edwards2B
.2922100020
J. SanchezRF
.2623122110
O. LopezSS
.2484000004
K. StowersLF
.2953010001
A. RamirezC
.2444011000
L. HicksC
.2762000000
N. FortesC
.2503010000
G. Pauley3B
.2042000001
J. Sanoja3B
.2373100000
- D. MyersCF
.2612000001
- E. Wagaman1B
.2341000000
Team29353137

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. AlcantaraSP
7.04100498
J. SimpsonRP
0.12110011
C. FaucherRP
1.21000022
Team9.072104131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • D. Cease
    95 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.9 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      34%·90.4 mph·31% whiff
    • KC
      8%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      2%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hart
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      38%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      17%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      50%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    98 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      24%·97.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.8 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.8 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      6%·99.1 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      36%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      36%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 21SDSD2@MIAMIA1
Jul 22SDSD3@MIAMIA4
Jul 23SDSD2@MIAMIA3today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 27MIAMIA3@SDSD4
May 28MIAMIA6@SDSD8
May 28MIAMIA10@SDSD8
Jul 21SDSD2@MIAMIA1
Jul 22SDSD3@MIAMIA4
Jul 23SDSD2@MIAMIA3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SDSD
J. Iglesias

J. Iglesias

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

MIAMIA
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIA beat SD 3-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 5th inning (24pp).

Win probability

MIA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 59% WP

Machado · singled to left, Arraez scored.

MIABottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+24pp→ 79% WP

J. Sánchez homered to right (377 feet), Sanoja scored.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+12pp→ 88% WP

Stowers · hit by pitch.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0001000102
MIA10002000—3

Period scoring

SD won 2 · MIA won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Machado 1

0
2

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Iglesias 1

0

Inn 9

SD
MIA

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  2. T9

    Bogaerts lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  6. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  7. T9

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  8. T9

    Sheets popped out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

    +6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  14. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  15. T9

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  16. T9

    Machado grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

    +5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  19. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 2·MIA 3

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 2·MIA 3

  22. B8

    ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  23. B8

    Myers grounded into double play, third to second to first, Stowers out at second.

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  27. B8

    David Morgan pitches to Dane Myers

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  28. B8

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

  29. B8

    Ramírez flied out to second.

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

    −2pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·MIA 3

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

9

TB

10

0

HR

1

0

BB

3

4

K

7

9

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.4± 1.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.7± 2.3low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 1.1high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 0.9low

Total bases

  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 2.0high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    1.6± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.3± 3.6low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(MIA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.6%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.