Form
Line

Form Line is what The One's model projects a player to do in their next scheduled game. It has three parts and nothing more:

• The projected line — the model's projection for the player's primary stat (e.g. points, strikeouts).
• The lean — the projection minus that player's own season average, read strictly as “vs his season pace.” A positive lean means projected above his usual pace. It compares the player to himself — never a ranking against other players.
• The typical range — a band covering roughly the middle 68% of outcomes, plus the number of games the projection draws on.

The projection blends the player's recent games (weighted ~60% toward the last ten) with their season average (~30%). The lean is simply that projection minus the season average. The typical range is one standard deviation either side of the projection (about 68% of outcomes); when the sample is thin the range is widened to be honest about the added uncertainty, and the lean is suppressed entirely below ten games so a short hot streak can't fake a big number.

Form Line is deliberately narrow. It is:

• Not a grade or rating. There's no 0–100 score and no percentile — it doesn't rank players against each other.
• Not accuracy-tested. It is a forward projection. We don't attach a per-player hit-rate, because we don't keep a graded ledger of these projections against results.
• Not a betting edge. It carries no market line, no closing-line value, and no implied “beat the book.” It's a read on the player, full stop.

Form Line shows only when there's a fresh projection for a player's next game. In-season leagues light up (MLB and the WNBA today); a league in its offseason simply shows nothing rather than a stale number. You'll find it on the player card for any player the model is projecting.

Form Line is a per-player projection. For how the model performs overall — whether its stated confidence is true across every graded game — see the Calibration Grade, the model's public report card.