Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings
GS
10-6
DAL
10-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Dallas Wings Friday at 8/7 - 9:30 PM EDT. GS is 5-4 in their last 9. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
41
FG %
46
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
DAL80@GS91GS@DALtodayDAL@GSupcomingScouting report
GS @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
DAL -5.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
DAL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-6
Record
10-6
#3
Conf rank
#4
+5.8
Pt diff
+4.6
L1
Streak
W1
6-4
Last 10
7-3
58.5
Power score
64.3
#7
Power rank
#5
79.5
Sched ahead
85.3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.0± 8.5medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.2± 8.3medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL15.3± 10.7medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.6± 4.5medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.5± 3.3medium
- Kiah StokesGS5.1± 1.7medium
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.4± 3.9medium
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 2.7medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.2± 3.4medium
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Azzi FuddDAL1.3± 1.6medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.1low
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.8medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
DAL
40.6%
FG%
44.6
▶45.7%
36.3%
3PT %
33.5
34.4%
84.4
PPG
85.9
▶87.9
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.7
10.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
10.5