Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at DAL?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

21-9

PregameFri, 9:30 PM EDTION

DAL

19-12

ATS/DAL -1.5O/U/163.5ML/DAL-118

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

GS +7.7 vs DAL +4.9 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

DAL 2 rest vs GS 3

GS has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+98.6

DAL Elo vs GS Elo

GS owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing DAL uphill early today again.

WNBAFri, Aug 78/7 - 9:30 PM EDTSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasDAL -1.5

Preview · WNBA

olden State Valkyries visit Dallas Wings Friday at 8/7 - 9:30 PM EDT. GS is 3-2 in their last 5. DAL is 3-4 in their last 7.

Vegas opened DAL as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 163.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 54% break-even, GS the inverse.

For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 163.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 6 over 6.5h29m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

FG %

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Jun 18

DAL80@

GS91

Aug 8

GS@

DALtoday

Aug 18

DAL@

GSupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

163.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-10250%

DAL-11854%

6· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

163.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

GS @ DAL

8/7 - 9:30 PM EDT

Rest going in

GS +1 day

GSLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 4

DALStandard

2 days

last game Aug 5

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

DAL -1.5

Model

GS -12.6

Edge

split

Total

Market

163.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

DAL -118

Model

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

GSmetricDAL

21-9

Record

19-12

Conf rank

+5.8

Pt diff

+3.8

Streak

8-2

Last 10

6-4

62.1

Power score

49.5

Power rank

#10

53.8

Sched ahead

73.9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 163.5·GS -102/DAL -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

DAL vs GS.

DAL is 6-4 recently; GS is 8-2.

33.5%

model · DAL win prob

Recent form

DAL6–4+4.9
GS8–2+7.7

Situational

DAL2d rest
GS3d rest
-1.0d differential

GS has 1 more rest day. DAL has 1 straight road games; GS has 0.

Model angle

+18.2ppon GS

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. The signals lean the same way.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp
▲Rest advantage+0.3pp

Players to watch

Paige BueckersDAL
19.3points · ±7.7
Paige Bueckers · 19.3 pts · last-10 19.1 vs season 19.6.
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
17.5points · ±5.9
Arike Ogunbowale · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.2 vs season 15.1.
Jessica ShepardDAL
14.7points · ±5.1
Jessica Shepard · 14.7 pts · last-10 14.9 vs season 14.4.

Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5

DAL is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-18GS @ DAL71–80
2025-07-26DAL @ GS76–86
2025-08-24GS @ DAL90–81
2025-09-05DAL @ GS80–84
2026-06-17DAL @ GS80–91

Line move

open -115→-118toward DAL

The market has moved 0.6pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.4%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
44.7%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.8%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like GS.

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. The signals lean the same way.

+18.2

pp edge · GS

-0.65

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on GS

77.6%

±10.4pp band

5u large — +27.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+29.3pp

+11.1pp post-cal

Kelly

54.7%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.98

+27.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 18.2pp · GS over DAL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
GS has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
GS has 3 days rest; DAL has 2.
+0.3pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at DAL?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

DAL vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
19.3± 7.7high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
17.5± 5.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
14.7± 5.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.6± 4.2high
Kiah StokesGS
5.7± 2.6high
Kayla ThorntonGS
4.5± 3.1high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
5.7± 2.4high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.7± 2.2high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.6± 2.3high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.4high
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.3high
Alanna SmithDAL
0.6± 1.1high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.6± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.5± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings

DAL vs GS.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like GS.

DAL vs GS.