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HALFTIME+1TOR
SEA

SEA

3-5

3637
TOR

TOR

4-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 370 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 16 players in cohort
  • Brittney SykesTOR · G
    USG%.28786
WNBASat, May 30HalftimeSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -6.5
Updated 0s ago

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jordan Horston

Jordan Horston

F · #23

9.8Game score

8

Pts

3

Reb

1

Ast

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nyara Sabally

Nyara Sabally

F · #8

6.4Game score

6

Pts

1

Reb

0

Ast

WNBA · Seattle Storm at Toronto Tempo · live

WNBA · Box score

Halftime
36
37
SEA3-5TOR4-4
SEA

SEA

3-5

36
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
J. HorstonJ. Horston★F · #23
10831402+4
S. DolsonS. Dolson★C · #31
11230000+3
N. HiedemanN. Hiedeman★G · #2
131014001+3
F. JohnsonF. Johnson★G · #4
14531001+3
J. MelbourneJ. Melbourne★G · #5
13511102-8
K. SamuelsonK. SamuelsonF · #33
9032101-6
M. HolmesM. HolmesF · #54
9241101-4
A. FamC · #11
11220011-3
Team362010619
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga
TOR

TOR

4-4

37
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SaballyN. Sabally★F · #8
136101110
L. JuskaiteL. Juskaite★F · #2
12210100+6
B. SykesB. Sykes★G · #20
17822001+6
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
1512200020
K. RiceK. Rice★G · #1
12420302+2
M. CondeF · #10
8541001-5
K. NurseK. NurseG · #11
8020100-2
J. AllemandJ. AllemandG · #22
9021002-3
Team37164619
DNP: I. Harrison, N. Milic, T. Fagbenle, T. Pouye

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

41

FG %

37

10

Ast

4

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

May 13SEASEA73@TORTOR86
May 30SEASEA@TORTORtoday
Aug 27TORTOR@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEASEA+19034%
TORTOR-23070%

20· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+2.0 since open

Total

171.5

+1.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

Halftime
Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Recent swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:55

Just happened

End of the 2nd Quarter

SEASEA
J. Horston

J. Horston

F

Leading · Halftime · 10 min

8 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST

On pace: 32 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

TORTOR
N. Sabally

N. Sabally

F

Leading · Halftime · 13 min

6 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST

On pace: 18 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST

How it's going

TOR lead SEA 37-36 (Halftime). N. Sabally led with 6 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST. TOR have outscored the other side 21-13 in the 1st quarter.

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

0255075100Q2

Starters vs bench

production by unit
SEASEAstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

Bench(5)

6 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 1

TORTORstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

32 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

GS 23

Bench(4)

5 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

GS 3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEA2nd Quarter · 5:04 · 27-30
+6pp→ 33% WP

Marina Mabrey · misses 31-foot three point jumper

TOR2nd Quarter · 2:57 · 29-33
+8pp→ 70% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maria Conde assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
SEA132336
TOR211637

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TOR won 1

13
21

Q1

Hiedeman 5

Mabrey 6

23
16

Q2

Horston 6

Sabally 6

SEA
TOR

Shooting comparison

SEA
TOR

41%

16-39

FG

37%

11-30

23%

3-13

3PT

25%

4-16

100%

1-1

FT

100%

11-11

Play-by-play · 191 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q2·0.0

    End of the 2nd Quarter

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    −1pp

  2. Q2·0.1

    Tempo offensive team rebound

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    +2pp

  3. Q2·0.3

    Awa Fam blocks Kiki Rice 's 36-foot driving floating jump shot

    ·

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    −0.8pp

  4. Q2·3.1

    Jordan Horston lost ball turnover (Nyara Sabally steals)

    ·

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    +2pp

  5. Q2·4.2

    Marina Mabrey bad pass turnover (Jordan Horston steals)

    ·

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    −2pp

  6. Q2·6.4

    Awa Fam makes 1-foot layup (Jordan Horston assists)BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 36·TOR 37

    −5pp

  7. Q2·29.2

    Maria Conde double dribble turnover

    SEA 34·TOR 37

    −2pp

  8. Q2·50.7

    Jordan Horston enters the game for Katie Lou Samuelson

    ·

    SEA 34·TOR 37

  9. Q2·50.7

    Marina Mabrey enters the game for Kia Nurse

    ·

    SEA 34·TOR 37

  10. Q2·50.7

    Tempo defensive team rebound

    SEA 34·TOR 37

  11. Q2·51.9

    Jade Melbourne misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot

    SEA 34·TOR 37

    +1pp

  12. Q2·1:06

    Kiki Rice enters the game for Julie Allemand

    ·

    SEA 34·TOR 37

  13. Q2·1:06

    Julie Allemand out of bounds lost ball turnover

    SEA 34·TOR 37

    −2pp

  14. Q2·1:21

    Maria Conde defensive rebound

    SEA 34·TOR 37

  15. Q2·1:24

    Awa Fam misses 10-foot step back jumpshot

    SEA 34·TOR 37

    +2pp

  16. Q2·1:37

    Brittney Sykes makes driving layup

    SEA 34·TOR 37

    +4pp

  17. Q2·1:55

    Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 1

    SEA 34·TOR 35

    +2pp

  18. Q2·1:55

    Julie Allemand shooting foulBIG MOMENT

    SEA 33·TOR 35

    −6pp

  19. Q2·1:55

    Jade Melbourne makes driving layup (Katie Lou Samuelson assists)

    ·

    SEA 33·TOR 35

    +2pp

  20. Q2·1:59

    Brittney Sykes personal foul

    SEA 31·TOR 35

    −5pp

  21. Q2·2:15

    Nyara Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 31·TOR 35

    −1pp

  22. Q2·2:15

    Nyara Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2

    SEA 31·TOR 34

    +0.9pp

  23. Q2·2:15

    Stefanie Dolson shooting foul

    SEA 31·TOR 33

    +5pp

  24. Q2·2:34

    Flau'jae Johnson makes 2-foot layup (Jade Melbourne assists)

    ·

    SEA 31·TOR 33

    −5pp

  25. Q2·2:37

    Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Mackenzie Holmes

    · ·

    SEA 29·TOR 33

  26. Q2·2:37

    Kia Nurse enters the game for Teonni Key

    ·

    SEA 29·TOR 33

  27. Q2·2:37

    Nyara Sabally enters the game for Marina Mabrey

    ·

    SEA 29·TOR 33

  28. Q2·2:37

    Official timeout

    SEA 29·TOR 33

  29. Q2·2:57

    Marina Mabrey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maria Conde assists)BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 29·TOR 33

    +8pp

  30. Q2·3:06

    Maria Conde defensive rebound

    SEA 29·TOR 30

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

16-39

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

41

FG %

37

3-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-16

1-1

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-11

10

Assists

4

9

Turnovers

9

Betting line

TOR -6.5·O/U 171.5·SEA +190/TOR -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Q2
away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • TOR2nd Quarter · 2:57 · 29-33
    +8pp→ 70% WP

    Marina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maria Conde assists)

  • SEA2nd Quarter · 5:04 · 27-30
    +6pp→ 33% WP

    Marina Mabrey · misses 31-foot three point jumper

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick
Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.98

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+145

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Market faded the model hard

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

90

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Brittney SykesTOR
    19.1± 14.8low
  • Marina MabreyTOR
    18.8± 13.3low
  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    13.6± 9.4low

Rebounds

  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    7.6± 3.0low
  • Mackenzie HolmesSEA
    5.0± 3.8low
  • Nyara SaballyTOR
    4.9± 3.4low

Assists

  • Jade MelbourneSEA
    3.9± 2.1low
  • Brittney SykesTOR
    3.9± 3.1low
  • Natisha HiedemanSEA
    3.7± 2.2low

Blocks

  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    1.4± 1.5low
  • Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
    1.3± 1.8low
  • Nyara SaballyTOR
    1.3± 1.0low

Steals

  • Brittney SykesTOR
    1.4± 2.0low
  • Marina MabreyTOR
    1.3± 1.7low
  • Nyara SaballyTOR
    1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

SEA

SEA

league avg

TOR

TOR

41.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

42.9%

34.1%

3PT %

32.6

34.1%

79.5

PPG

85.4

▶

89.1

17.0

Assists / G

18.0

▶

18.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop