Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+21TOR

SEA

3-6

7293

TOR

5-4

WNBASat, May 30FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -6.5

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Kiki Rice

G · #1

16.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:31

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	22	15	6-11	1-2	2-2	-2	4	1
S. DolsonC · #31	23	7	3-5	1-1	—	-11	4	2
N. HiedemanG · #2	23	18	7-12	3-8	1-1	-9	2	7
F. JohnsonG · #4	24	7	3-9	1-5	—	-15	3	3
J. MelbourneG · #5	27	8	3-8	1-2	1-1	-18	3	4
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	17	2	1-5	0-4	0-1	-16	4	2
M. HolmesF · #54	15	6	2-3	—	2-2	-5	7	1
A. FamC · #11	24	7	3-10	0-2	1-1	-20	5	0
L. BrownG · #8	14	0	0-2	0-2	—	-2	0	1
Z. CookeG · #7	11	2	1-6	0-1	—	-7	0	0
Team		72	29-71	7-27	7-8		32	21
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	26	8	2-5	0-1	4-4	+15	4	0
L. JuskaiteF · #2	25	14	5-8	4-5	—	+25	5	1
B. SykesG · #20	29	15	4-12	0-4	7-7	+8	3	2
M. MabreyG · #3	29	18	6-13	3-9	3-3	+6	3	4
K. RiceG · #1	28	17	4-8	0-2	9-9	+24	6	1
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	23	13	3-6	3-4	4-4	+19	6	2
T. KeyF · #7	9	0	0-1	0-1	0-2	-1	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	2	0
J. AllemandG · #22	17	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+15	4	4
T. PouyeG · #32	4	2	—	—	2-2	-2	0	0
Team		93	26-59	10-29	31-33		34	14
DNP: I. Harrison, N. Milic, T. Fagbenle

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

29-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-59

FG %

7-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

7-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

31-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 13

SEA73@

TOR86

May 30

SEA72@

TOR93today

Aug 27

TOR@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEA+19034%

TOR-23070%

20· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗SpreadBet TOR -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+2.0 since open

Total

171.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 93-72. K. Rice led with 17 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 33-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 2

TORstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 2:57 · 29-33

+8pp→ 70% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maria Conde assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 7:31 · 42-41

+12pp→ 59% WP

Brittney Sykes · makes free throw 1 of 2

TOR3rd Quarter · 3:04 · 51-53

+11pp→ 68% WP

Katie Lou Samuelson · bad pass turnover (Julie Allemand steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	13	23	20	16	72
TOR	21	16	33	23	93

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TOR won 3

Hiedeman 5

Mabrey 6

Horston 6

Sabally 6

Hiedeman 8

Rice 8

Horston 7

Juskaite 6

SEA

TOR

Shooting comparison

SEA

TOR

41%

29-71

44%

26-59

26%

7-27

3PT

34%

10-29

88%

7-8

94%

31-33

Play-by-play · 392 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 72·TOR 93
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 72·TOR 93
Q4·1.0
shot clock turnover
SEA 72·TOR 93
Q4·25.0
Mackenzie Holmes makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SEA 72·TOR 93
Q4·25.0
Mackenzie Holmes makes free throw 1 of 2
·
SEA 71·TOR 93
Q4·25.0
Teonni Key personal foul
SEA 70·TOR 93
Q4·25.0
Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound
·
SEA 70·TOR 93
Q4·27.5
Brittney Sykes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 70·TOR 93
Q4·40.9
Jordan Horston makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 70·TOR 93
Q4·40.9
Jordan Horston makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 69·TOR 93
Q4·40.9
Brittney Sykes shooting foul
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·40.9
Jordan Horston offensive rebound
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·42.7
Jordan Horston misses driving layup
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·56.0
Awa Fam defensive rebound
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·58.4
Teonni Key misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·58.4
Tempo offensive team rebound
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·58.4
Teonni Key misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·58.4
Mackenzie Holmes shooting foul
·
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·58.4
Teonni Key offensive rebound
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·59.5
Brittney Sykes misses driving layup
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·1:15
Brittney Sykes defensive rebound
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·1:18
Zia Cooke misses driving floating jump shot
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·1:32
Tima Pouye makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 68·TOR 93
Q4·1:32
Tima Pouye makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 68·TOR 92
Q4·1:32
Zia Cooke shooting foul
SEA 68·TOR 91
Q4·1:50
Kia Nurse enters the game for Nyara Sabally
·
SEA 68·TOR 91
Q4·1:50
Teonni Key enters the game for Maria Conde
·
SEA 68·TOR 91
Q4·1:50
shot clock turnover
SEA 68·TOR 91
Q4·1:50
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 68·TOR 91
Q4·1:50
Awa Fam misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 68·TOR 91

Betting line

TOR -6.5·O/U 171.5·SEA +190/TOR -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo held off Seattle Storm, 93–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -6.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 171.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

TOR

eFG%

shooting

45.8%

52.5%

TOV%

ball control

18.6%

14.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

24.3%

20.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

9.9%

52.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
63.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
67.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.98

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-175

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+190DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 33.1%

TOR

no live price

Book	SEA	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+190★	-230	+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high

Blocks

Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop