WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7POR

POR

4-3

8174

3-4

WNBAMon, May 25FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasNY -10.5

POR · top performer

Emily Engstler

F · #21

12.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 3:36

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	30	10	2-9	1-6	5-5	+10	3	2
E. EngstlerF · #21	28	8	3-6	1-3	1-2	+10	5	2
N. PuochF · #13	20	5	2-7	0-2	1-1	+3	3	2
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	22	6	2-9	2-4	—	+11	5	2
C. LeiteG · #0	22	18	8-14	1-2	1-2	+9	0	2
Bench
GustafsonC · #17	18	11	5-8	1-2	—	-4	1	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	11	4	1-5	—	2-4	-4	3	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	13	2	1-4	0-3	—	-4	1	1
S. BarkerG · #3	18	7	3-5	1-2	—	+6	5	3
T. OblakG · #7	18	10	4-8	2-2	—	-2	3	4
Team		81	31-75	9-26	10-14		29	18
DNP: F. Buhner, H. Winterburn, J. Harrison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	33	25	4-11	2-3	15-17	-4	7	0
S. SaballyF · #0	4	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-7	0	0
J. JonesC · #35	32	12	3-11	1-5	5-5	-9	11	4
M. JohannesG · #23	32	17	6-12	5-9	—	-2	2	6
P. AstierG · #18	32	4	2-4	0-1	—	-14	3	3
Bench
A. MaleyF · #24	11	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
H. XuC · #21	16	8	4-5	0-1	—	+3	1	2
R. GardnerG · #7	17	4	2-4	—	—	+6	0	1
R. AllenG · #9	24	2	0-4	0-4	2-2	-5	3	1
Team		74	21-52	8-24	24-26		27	17
DNP: R. Carrera

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

31-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

21-52

FG %

9-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-24

10-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 13

NY96@

POR98

May 15

NY100@

POR82

May 26

POR81@

NY74today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

1.0pt· 6h

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

POR+36022%

NY-47082%

100· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -10.5↗SpreadBet NY -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

+1.0 since open

Total

172.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat NY 81-74. E. Engstler led with 8 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. POR outscored the other side 32-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

NYstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 40

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 3:36 · 67-65

+18pp→ 49% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · makes 24-foot three pointer

NY4th Quarter · 1:57 · 72-65

+12pp→ 20% WP

Bridget Carleton · personal foul

NY4th Quarter · 57.1 · 72-67

+13pp→ 28% WP

Emily Engstler · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	19	16	14	32	81
NY	18	15	24	17	74

Period scoring

POR won 3 · NY won 1

Puoch 5

Stewart 5

Leite 8

Johannes 6

Gustafson 4

Stewart 10

Leite 7

Stewart 8

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

41%

31-75

40%

21-52

35%

9-26

3PT

33%

8-24

71%

10-14

92%

24-26

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 81·NY 74
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 81·NY 74
Q4·2.9
Breanna Stewart bad pass turnover (Sarah Ashlee Barker steals)
·
POR 81·NY 74
Q4·5.1
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 81·NY 74
Q4·5.1
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 80·NY 74
Q4·5.1
Rebecca Allen personal take foul
POR 79·NY 74
Q4·6.1
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
POR 79·NY 74
−0.5pp
Q4·7.9
Jonquel Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 79·NY 74
−2pp
Q4·9.6
Marine Johannes enters the game for Anneli Maley
·
POR 79·NY 74
Q4·9.6
Liberty Full timeout
POR 79·NY 74
Q4·9.6
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 79·NY 74
+1pp
Q4·9.6
Bridget Carleton makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 78·NY 74
−0.5pp
Q4·9.6
Rebecca Allen personal take foul
POR 77·NY 74
−4pp
Q4·10.3
Anneli Maley enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
POR 77·NY 74
Q4·10.3
Fire Full timeout
POR 77·NY 74
Q4·11.4
Marine Johannes makes 24-foot three pointer (Pauline Astier assists)
·
POR 77·NY 74
+5pp
Q4·13.7
Marine Johannes enters the game for Anneli Maley
·
POR 77·NY 71
Q4·13.7
Liberty timeout
POR 77·NY 71
Q4·14.4
Carla Leite makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
POR 77·NY 71
−12pp
Q4·29.6
Anneli Maley enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
POR 74·NY 71
Q4·29.6
Fire Full timeout
POR 74·NY 71
Q4·29.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 74·NY 71
−9pp
Q4·29.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 74·NY 70
+2pp
Q4·29.6
Luisa Geiselsoder shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 74·NY 69
+10pp
Q4·38.9
Liberty Full timeout
POR 74·NY 69
Q4·39.3
Carla Leite makes 3-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
POR 74·NY 69
−10pp
Q4·57.1
Fire timeout
POR 72·NY 69
Q4·57.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 72·NY 69
−10pp
Q4·57.1
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 72·NY 68
+2pp
Q4·57.1
Emily Engstler personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 72·NY 67
+13pp

Betting line

NY -10.5·O/U 172.5·POR +360/NY -470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire went into New York Liberty and beat them, 81–74.

POR +10.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

47.3%

48.1%

TOV%

ball control

12.9%

23.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.8%

16.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.3%

46.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
55.1%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.1pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+360DraftKings

edge +28.1pp · implied 20.9%

no live price

Book	POR	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+360★	-470	+28.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.8± 8.7high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.8± 6.4high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.6± 3.2high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 1.6high
Breanna StewartNY
3.6± 2.7high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.7high

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Breanna StewartNY
1.3± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Portland FireNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Sun70Valkyries97Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop