Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+27GS

CON

1-7

7097

4-2

WNBAMon, May 25FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -13.5

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

10.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

12.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 42.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	21	8	3-8	0-1	2-2	-17	5	0
D. MillerF · #1	17	4	0-3	0-2	4-4	-15	1	0
K. BurkeG · #25	20	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	-14	2	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	19	9	3-5	2-3	1-2	-16	2	2
G. KneepkensG · #5	12	6	2-2	—	2-2	-12	1	1
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	23	11	4-8	1-3	2-4	-16	10	2
R. BeersF · #15	7	3	1-1	—	1-1	+1	3	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	14	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-8	1	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	12	7	2-5	—	3-4	-11	1	5
H. Van LithG · #2	20	5	2-7	—	1-1	-9	2	2
S. RiversG · #22	22	2	0-8	0-3	2-2	-16	3	0
A. JacksonG · #3	14	6	2-3	2-3	0-2	-2	1	1
Team		70	22-57	6-18	20-28		32	13
DNP: B. Griner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	16	5	1-6	1-4	2-2	+26	8	2
G. WilliamsF · #1	18	15	6-10	3-5	—	+21	2	1
K. StokesC · #41	13	1	0-2	—	1-2	+16	1	1
K. CharlesG · #6	21	12	5-8	2-2	0-1	+27	7	0
V. BurtonG · #22	17	11	4-6	2-2	1-1	+17	2	6
Bench
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	14	6	2-5	2-4	0-1	+2	1	1
L. AmihereF · #3	19	9	3-5	—	3-5	+4	4	3
A. PrechtelF · #11	5	5	2-3	1-2	—	-2	1	0
J. SalaunF · #13	26	9	3-13	1-9	2-4	+10	4	2
T. HayesG · #15	17	9	3-7	0-2	3-3	+6	2	3
K. ChenG · #2	23	10	3-5	0-1	4-4	+10	2	2
N. MwenentandaG · #32	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	1
J. JocyteG · #4	5	5	2-2	1-1	—	-2	0	2
Team		97	34-73	13-33	16-23		35	24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

Home

22-57

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-73

FG %

6-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

20-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

May 26

CON70@

GS97today

Jul 10

GS79@

CON64

Aug 26

GS@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

159.5

Defensive · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+57515%

GS-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -13.5↗SpreadBet GS -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

+3.0 since open

Total

159.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat CON 97-70. V. Burton led with 11 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. GS outscored the other side 20-8 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 43% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 17

Bench(7)

40 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

GSstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

44 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Bench(8)

53 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 6:36 · 22-34

+9pp→ 95% WP

Charlisse Leger-Walker · personal foul

GS3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 30-47

+8pp→ 98% WP

Veronica Burton · enters the game for Laeticia Amihere

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	22	8	18	22	70
GS	27	20	26	24	97

Period scoring

CON won 0 · GS won 4

Morrow 7

Williams 10

Angloma 2

Angloma 8

Jackson 6

Burton 15

Kneepkens 6

Amihere 6

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

39%

22-57

47%

34-73

33%

6-18

3PT

39%

13-33

71%

20-28

70%

16-23

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·3.1
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·5.8
Diamond Miller misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·21.3
Kennedy Burke defensive rebound
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·25.0
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda misses 22-foot three point jumper
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·37.2
Gianna Kneepkens makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 70·GS 97
Q4·37.2
Gianna Kneepkens makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 69·GS 97
Q4·37.2
Janelle Salaun shooting foul
CON 68·GS 97
Q4·39.4
Janelle Salaun bad pass turnover (Gianna Kneepkens steals)
·
CON 68·GS 97
Q4·50.6
Hailey Van Lith makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 68·GS 97
Q4·50.6
Juste Jocyte shooting foul
CON 67·GS 97
Q4·50.6
Hailey Van Lith makes driving layup
CON 67·GS 97
Q4·1:02
Ashten Prechtel makes 1-foot layup (Juste Jocyte assists)
·
CON 65·GS 97
Q4·1:15
Gianna Kneepkens makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
CON 65·GS 95
Q4·1:27
Juste Jocyte bad pass turnover (Raegan Beers steals)
·
CON 63·GS 95
Q4·1:35
Hailey Van Lith makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
CON 63·GS 95
Q4·1:44
Juste Jocyte makes 24-foot three point jumper (Janelle Salaun assists)
·
CON 61·GS 95
Q4·2:02
Raegan Beers enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa
·
CON 61·GS 92
Q4·2:02
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive foul turnover
CON 61·GS 92
Q4·2:02
Olivia Nelson-Ododa offensive charge
CON 61·GS 92
Q4·2:14
Kaitlyn Chen makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·GS 92
Q4·2:14
Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Charlisse Leger-Walker
·
CON 61·GS 91
Q4·2:14
Kaitlyn Chen makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·GS 91
Q4·2:14
Charlisse Leger-Walker personal foul
CON 61·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 60·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 60·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Diamond Miller enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 60·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Official timeout
CON 60·GS 90

Betting line

GS -13.5·O/U 159.5·CON +575/GS -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Connecticut Sun, 97–70. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

GS -13.5 cashed (won by 27). Total cleared the 159.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

43.9%

55.5%

TOV%

ball control

20.6%

12.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

31.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

35.1%

21.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488
Kaila CharlesGS · G
ORB%.10186

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

85.3%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
87.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
87.2%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
84.2%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.65

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-500

Close price

-750

Open no-vig

80.0%

Close no-vig

84.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CON

no live price

Book	CON	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+575	-850	+0.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high
Leila LacanCON
12.9± 5.6high

Rebounds

Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high
Brittney GrinerCON
5.7± 3.7medium
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Fire81Liberty74Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop