Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CON

CON

1-5

8078

SEA

1-4

WNBAWed, May 20FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasSEA -2.5

CON · top performer

Kennedy Burke

G · #25

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Mackenzie Holmes

F · #54

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 81pp · 4th Quarter · 2.8

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	27	12	5-12	0-2	2-2	-2	4	3
D. MillerF · #1	15	2	1-6	0-3	—	-8	2	0
A. MorrowF · #24	7	2	1-1	—	—	-10	3	0
H. Van LithG · #2	12	0	0-4	0-1	—	-2	0	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	4	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-1	1	0
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	27	10	4-8	1-1	1-3	+12	8	2
N. AnglomaF · #33	29	15	7-12	—	1-4	+8	7	0
K. BurkeG · #25	23	15	5-8	3-5	2-3	+3	6	1
S. RiversG · #22	13	2	1-1	—	—	+19	4	3
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	28	16	6-15	1-6	3-3	+4	2	3
A. JacksonG · #3	15	4	2-3	0-1	—	-13	1	1
Team		80	32-72	5-20	11-17		38	14
DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	17	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	3	0
S. DolsonC · #31	28	3	0-4	0-2	3-4	+4	3	2
N. HiedemanG · #2	30	20	8-18	3-9	1-1	+3	1	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	16	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	0	3	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	30	11	1-4	0-1	9-10	-7	2	3
Bench
M. HolmesF · #54	26	18	6-8	1-1	5-5	-11	6	1
T. ThierryF · #3	9	6	2-4	2-3	—	-4	2	0
L. BrownG · #8	22	5	2-6	0-1	1-1	0	2	2
Z. CookeG · #7	19	10	4-10	0-3	2-2	+1	4	1
T. MairG · #22	3	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	1
Team		78	25-63	6-23	22-25		26	15
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

32-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-63

FG %

5-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-23

11-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 10

SEA89@

CON82

May 21

CON80@

SEA78today

May 23

CON59@

SEA77

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -2.5

Between — and 5

2.0pt· 6.2h

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

CON+12045%

SEA-14259%

45· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -2.5↗SpreadBet SEA -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

-2.0 since open

Total

169.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

CON beat SEA 80-78. K. Burke led with 15 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. Kennedy Burke's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (81pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 23% of pts

Starters(5)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 4

Bench(6)

62 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST

GS 55

SEAstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 26

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 5:50 · 67-65

+15pp→ 54% WP

Nell Angloma · shooting foul

CON4th Quarter · 4:18 · 71-67

+17pp→ 73% WP

Lexie Brown · misses two point shot

CON4th Quarter · 2.8 · 79-78

+81pp→ 85% WP

Kennedy Burke · makes running layup (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	29	17	17	17	80
SEA	23	18	18	19	78

Period scoring

CON won 1 · SEA won 3

Beers 8

Hiedeman 10

Angloma 6

Holmes 10

Leger-Walker 7

Thierry 6

Burke 7

Melbourne 6

CON

SEA

Shooting comparison

CON

SEA

44%

32-72

40%

25-63

25%

5-20

3PT

26%

6-23

65%

11-17

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 410 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 80·SEA 78
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 80·SEA 78
−4pp
Q4·1.6
Storm offensive team rebound
CON 80·SEA 78
+1pp
Q4·1.6
Natisha Hiedeman misses 28-foot three point jumper
CON 80·SEA 78
−4pp
Q4·2.8
Diamond Miller enters the game for Charlisse Leger-Walker
·
CON 80·SEA 78
Q4·2.8
Zia Cooke enters the game for Mackenzie Holmes
·
CON 80·SEA 78
Q4·2.8
Storm Full timeout
CON 80·SEA 78
Q4·2.8
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 80·SEA 78
+2pp
Q4·2.8
Lexie Brown shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 79·SEA 78
−11pp
Q4·2.8
Kennedy Burke makes running layup (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·SEA 78
−81pp
Q4·6.9
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
CON 77·SEA 78
+0.8pp
Q4·9.6
Natisha Hiedeman misses 8-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 77·SEA 78
+11pp
Q4·31.9
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
CON 77·SEA 78
Q4·31.9
Storm timeout
CON 77·SEA 78
Q4·31.9
Aaliyah Edwards makes driving layup
CON 77·SEA 78
−4pp
Q4·40.8
Sun Full timeout
CON 75·SEA 78
Q4·40.8
Jordan Horston enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
CON 75·SEA 78
Q4·40.8
Mackenzie Holmes makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 75·SEA 78
−3pp
Q4·40.8
Mackenzie Holmes makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 75·SEA 77
+2pp
Q4·40.8
Nell Angloma loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CON 75·SEA 76
+8pp
Q4·40.8
Storm defensive team rebound
CON 75·SEA 76
+4pp
Q4·43.9
Aaliyah Edwards misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 75·SEA 76
+14pp
Q4·59.0
Sun Full timeout
CON 75·SEA 76
Q4·59.0
Jade Melbourne makes 2-foot layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 75·SEA 76
+9pp
Q4·1:10
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
CON 75·SEA 74
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CON 75·SEA 74
+9pp
Q4·1:35
Natisha Hiedeman makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CON 75·SEA 74
+8pp
Q4·1:46
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 75·SEA 72
−5pp
Q4·2:02
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 73·SEA 72
−8pp
Q4·2:02
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 73·SEA 71
+2pp

Betting line

SEA -2.5·O/U 169.5·CON +120/SEA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

onnecticut Sun went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 80–78. Decided by 2.

CON +2.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 169.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

SEA

eFG%

shooting

47.9%

44.4%

TOV%

ball control

12.2%

15.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.4%

15.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.3%

34.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283
Jade MelbourneSEA · G
AST/TO2.072

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
75.8%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.7%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-7.68

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-175

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.9pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

CON

no live price

SEA

★ best

-142DraftKings

edge +16.9pp · implied 56.3%

Book	CON	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+120	-142★	+16.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.0± 7.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
14.9± 7.9high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop