Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10DAL

DAL

3-2

9989

CHI

3-2

WNBAWed, May 20FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -2.5

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:16

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	31	18	6-7	0-1	6-9	+10	10	12
A. SmithF · #8	16	7	3-6	1-3	—	+3	6	0
O. SimsG · #1	19	4	2-6	0-1	—	+9	0	3
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	32	23	7-16	4-6	5-5	+7	2	5
P. BueckersG · #5	33	24	11-19	1-3	1-1	+5	3	4
Bench
M. SiegristF · #20	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	0
A. KuierF · #34	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	-3	1	0
L. YueruC · #28	20	7	1-4	1-3	4-6	+18	9	3
A. FuddG · #35	28	12	4-6	2-2	2-2	+6	0	1
A. JamesG · #10	8	4	2-5	—	—	+1	4	0
Team		99	36-72	9-21	18-23		36	28
DNP: A. Clark, J. Quinerly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. CardosoC · #10	33	24	10-14	—	4-6	-12	11	5
S. DigginsG · #4	34	15	6-14	2-6	1-2	-12	1	4
N. CloudG · #9	35	21	6-12	1-5	8-8	-7	8	5
J. SheldonG · #0	21	2	1-4	0-2	—	+3	0	1
G. JaquezG · #11	28	12	4-11	0-2	4-4	-8	5	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	18	5	2-4	—	1-2	-6	3	1
R. BanhamG · #24	15	10	3-8	2-6	2-2	-6	0	1
A. CoulibalyG · #35	16	0	—	—	—	-2	2	1
Team		89	32-67	5-21	20-24		30	20
DNP: A. Stevens, R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, S. Taylor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

36-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-67

FG %

9-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-21

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

May 21

DAL99@

CHI89today

Jun 21

CHI92@

DAL93

Jul 12

CHI91@

DAL96

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-14860%

CHI+12445%

6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗SpreadBet DAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

170.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CHI 99-89. J. Shepard stuffed the line with 18 PTS, 10 REB, and 12 AST. DAL outscored the other side 34-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 21 REB · 24 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

CHIstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 59

Bench(3)

15 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 5:16 · 51-49

+21pp→ 39% WP

Natasha Cloud · makes driving layup

CHI4th Quarter · 2:32 · 87-82

+10pp→ 28% WP

Paige Bueckers · personal foul

DAL4th Quarter · 2:22 · 90-84

+12pp→ 88% WP

Arike Ogunbowale · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	16	21	34	28	99
CHI	22	16	26	25	89

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · CHI won 1

Shepard 4

Cloud 7

Bueckers 7

Cardoso 8

Shepard 8

Cardoso 7

Ogunbowale 11

Diggins 23

DAL

CHI

Shooting comparison

DAL

CHI

50%

36-72

48%

32-67

43%

9-21

3PT

24%

5-21

78%

18-23

83%

20-24

Play-by-play · 396 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 99·CHI 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 99·CHI 89
Q4·11.3
Kamilla Cardoso makes 1-foot layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
DAL 99·CHI 89
Q4·15.4
Paige Bueckers makes 2-foot two point shot
DAL 99·CHI 87
Q4·24.6
Li Yueru offensive rebound
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·28.2
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·28.2
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·28.2
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·28.2
Skylar Diggins personal foul
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·28.2
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·30.3
Rachel Banham misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·37.8
Sky Full timeout
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·37.8
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 97·CHI 87
Q4·37.8
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 96·CHI 87
Q4·37.8
Skylar Diggins personal foul
DAL 95·CHI 87
Q4·40.7
Rachel Banham personal take foul
DAL 95·CHI 87
−0.5pp
Q4·45.2
Rachel Banham makes 24-foot three pointer (Kamilla Cardoso assists)
·
DAL 95·CHI 87
Q4·57.9
Paige Bueckers makes 1-foot two point shot
DAL 95·CHI 84
Q4·1:10
Li Yueru offensive rebound
DAL 93·CHI 84
−0.6pp
Q4·1:11
Arike Ogunbowale misses two point shot
DAL 93·CHI 84
Q4·1:31
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
DAL 93·CHI 84
Q4·1:34
Rachel Banham misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 93·CHI 84
−0.9pp
Q4·1:42
Rachel Banham enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
DAL 93·CHI 84
Q4·1:42
Sky Full timeout
DAL 93·CHI 84
Q4·1:42
Arike Ogunbowale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jessica Shepard assists)
·
DAL 93·CHI 84
−4pp
Q4·1:58
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 90·CHI 84
−1pp
Q4·1:59
Natasha Cloud misses two point shot
DAL 90·CHI 84
−4pp
Q4·2:22
Arike Ogunbowale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 90·CHI 84
−12pp
Q4·2:32
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 87·CHI 84
−7pp
Q4·2:32
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 87·CHI 83
+2pp

Betting line

DAL -2.5·O/U 170.5·DAL -148/CHI +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 99–89.

DAL -2.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

CHI

eFG%

shooting

56.3%

51.5%

TOV%

ball control

8.9%

10.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

27.3%

18.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.0%

29.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Arike OgunbowaleDAL · G
USG%.24775

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.1%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
58.4%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.05

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+105

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.0pp

best edge · CHI · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

CHI

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +7.0pp · implied 42.8%

Book	DAL	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-148	+124★	+7.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Sydney TaylorCHI
16.8± 7.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.0± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.3± 3.2high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.1± 1.8high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.5± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.1± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop