May 28, 25sim 93
1477
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17IND
POR
2-3
7390
IND
3-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 369 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Portland Fire, 90–73.
IND -10.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 175.5 by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
POR · top performer
Bridget Carleton
F · #6
12.0Game score
16
Pts
3
Reb
0
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
20.9Game score
24
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Portland Fire at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
POR2-3
7390
IND3-2
POR2-3IND3-2
POR
2-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -21 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -27 | |
| 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -21 | |
| 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
| 24 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
| 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| Team | 73 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Smalls, K. Samuelson | ||||||||
IND
3-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 21 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +22 | |
| 28 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +25 | |
| 29 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 22 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +25 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | |
| Team | 90 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: D. Dantas, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
45
9
Ast
21
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
May 20POR73@IND90today
POR73@IND90todayMay 31IND@PORupcoming
IND@PORupcomingAug 1IND@PORupcoming
IND@PORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
175.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+36022%IND-47082%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
175.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowPOR ↔ IND
PORB. Carleton
FGame leader · 25 min
16 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 21 min
24 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat POR 90-73. A. Boston led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 28-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 19
Bench(6)
34 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST
GS 24
INDstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST
GS 62
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST
GS 9
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 20 | 17 | 14 | 22 | 73 |
| IND | 28 | 25 | 20 | 17 | 90 |
Period scoring
POR won 1 · IND won 3
20
28
Q1
Leite 6
Boston 9
17
25
Q2
Carleton 7
Mitchell 9
14
20
Q3
Carleton 4
Boston 7
22
17
Q4
Sutton 6
Hull 8
POR
IND
Shooting comparison
POR
IND
44%
27-62
FG
45%
28-62
19%
3-16
3PT
32%
9-28
94%
16-17
FT
86%
25-29
Play-by-play · 417 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 73·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 73·IND 90
- Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
POR 73·IND 90
- Q4·25.2
Holly Winterburn makes 2-foot two point shot (Sug Sutton assists)
·
POR 73·IND 90
- Q4·31.8
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
POR 71·IND 90
- Q4·34.8
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 71·IND 90
- Q4·49.1
Serah Williams makes 3-foot reverse layup (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
POR 71·IND 90
- Q4·57.4
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:00
Tyasha Harris misses 27-foot three point jumper
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:01
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:04
Raven Johnson misses 9-foot step back jumpshot
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:19
Holly Winterburn out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:22
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:25
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:49
Haley Jones makes two point shot
POR 69·IND 90
- Q4·1:50
Haley Jones offensive rebound
POR 67·IND 90
- Q4·1:52
Holly Winterburn misses 26-foot running jump shot
POR 67·IND 90
- Q4·1:57
Serah Williams defensive rebound
POR 67·IND 90
- Q4·1:59
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 67·IND 90
- Q4·2:18
Sug Sutton makes 7-foot pullup jump shot
POR 67·IND 90
- Q4·2:24
Serah Williams defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 90
- Q4·2:29
Tyasha Harris misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
POR 65·IND 90
- Q4·2:42
Sug Sutton out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 65·IND 90
- Q4·2:52
Raven Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyasha Harris assists)
·
POR 65·IND 90
- Q4·3:06
Monique Billings defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 87
- Q4·3:08
Haley Jones misses running layup
POR 65·IND 87
- Q4·3:13
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 87
- Q4·3:15
Tyasha Harris misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 65·IND 87
- Q4·3:18
Fever Full timeout
POR 65·IND 87
- Q4·3:18
Monique Billings enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
POR 65·IND 87
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
IND
Home
27-62
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-62
44
FG %
45
3-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-28
16-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-29
9
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
14
Betting line
IND -10.5·O/U 175.5·POR +360/IND -470
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.47
CLV pp
Open price
+625
Close price
+600
Open no-vig
13.2%
Close no-vig
13.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
IND vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Carla LeitePOR14.7± 6.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
- Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR4.6± 3.6low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Carla LeitePOR4.0± 3.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.4± 1.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR2.0± 1.5low
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.3± 1.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
IND
45.1%
FG%
44.9
45.4%
33.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
83.8
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
18.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
13.5
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4