Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at IND?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17IND

POR

2-3

7390

IND

3-2

WNBAWed, May 20FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -10.5

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

12.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ IND

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	25	16	6-13	2-6	2-2	-21	3	0
E. EngstlerF · #21	21	5	2-10	1-3	—	-27	2	0
N. PuochF · #13	20	0	0-1	—	—	-21	1	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	22	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-16	1	1
S. SuttonG · #1	24	14	6-8	0-1	2-2	-9	1	4
Bench
GustafsonC · #17	18	4	2-5	0-2	—	-1	6	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	17	6	3-5	—	0-1	+10	2	0
H. WinterburnG · #77	8	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+4	2	1
H. JonesG · #30	13	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	+6	3	1
S. BarkerG · #3	19	8	2-8	0-1	4-4	0	6	1
C. LeiteG · #0	14	6	2-3	—	2-2	-10	1	1
Team		73	27-62	3-16	16-17		28	9
DNP: K. Smalls, K. Samuelson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	21	9	2-7	0-1	5-5	+1	4	1
A. BostonC · #7	21	24	8-11	2-4	6-6	+22	8	3
K. MitchellG · #0	28	21	6-11	2-3	7-9	+25	2	4
T. HarrisG · #52	29	0	0-6	0-4	—	+17	1	7
L. HullG · #10	22	16	4-4	4-4	4-4	+25	8	1
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	18	7	3-5	—	1-1	-2	3	3
M. TimpsonF · #21	20	2	1-1	—	0-2	+11	5	0
S. Walker-KimbroughG · #32	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	15	2	1-5	0-4	—	-1	2	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	22	9	3-12	1-8	2-2	-8	3	1
Team		90	28-62	9-28	25-29		36	21
DNP: D. Dantas, C. Clark

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

IND

Home

27-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-62

FG %

3-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

16-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 20

POR73@

IND90today

May 31

IND84@

POR100

Aug 1

IND@

PORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

175.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+36022%

IND-47082%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -10.5↗SpreadBet IND -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

175.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat POR 90-73. A. Boston led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 28-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 19

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 24

INDstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	20	17	14	22	73
IND	28	25	20	17	90

Period scoring

POR won 1 · IND won 3

Leite 6

Boston 9

Carleton 7

Mitchell 9

Carleton 4

Boston 7

Sutton 6

Hull 8

POR

IND

Shooting comparison

POR

IND

44%

27-62

45%

28-62

19%

3-16

3PT

32%

9-28

94%

16-17

86%

25-29

Play-by-play · 417 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 73·IND 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 73·IND 90
Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
POR 73·IND 90
Q4·25.2
Holly Winterburn makes 2-foot two point shot (Sug Sutton assists)
·
POR 73·IND 90
Q4·31.8
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
POR 71·IND 90
Q4·34.8
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 71·IND 90
Q4·49.1
Serah Williams makes 3-foot reverse layup (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
POR 71·IND 90
Q4·57.4
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:00
Tyasha Harris misses 27-foot three point jumper
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:01
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:04
Raven Johnson misses 9-foot step back jumpshot
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:19
Holly Winterburn out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:22
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:25
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:49
Haley Jones makes two point shot
POR 69·IND 90
Q4·1:50
Haley Jones offensive rebound
POR 67·IND 90
Q4·1:52
Holly Winterburn misses 26-foot running jump shot
POR 67·IND 90
Q4·1:57
Serah Williams defensive rebound
POR 67·IND 90
Q4·1:59
Raven Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 67·IND 90
Q4·2:18
Sug Sutton makes 7-foot pullup jump shot
POR 67·IND 90
Q4·2:24
Serah Williams defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 90
Q4·2:29
Tyasha Harris misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
POR 65·IND 90
Q4·2:42
Sug Sutton out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 65·IND 90
Q4·2:52
Raven Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyasha Harris assists)
·
POR 65·IND 90
Q4·3:06
Monique Billings defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 87
Q4·3:08
Haley Jones misses running layup
POR 65·IND 87
Q4·3:13
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 65·IND 87
Q4·3:15
Tyasha Harris misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 65·IND 87
Q4·3:18
Fever Full timeout
POR 65·IND 87
Q4·3:18
Monique Billings enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
POR 65·IND 87

Betting line

IND -10.5·O/U 175.5·POR +360/IND -470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Portland Fire, 90–73.

IND -10.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 175.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

IND

eFG%

shooting

46.0%

52.4%

TOV%

ball control

14.7%

15.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

8.8%

16.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.8%

40.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482
Emily EngstlerPOR · F
DRB%.20780

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
60.5%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.6%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.6%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.47

CLV pp

Open price

+625

Close price

+600

Open no-vig

13.2%

Close no-vig

13.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at IND?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.9pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+360DraftKings

edge +23.9pp · implied 20.9%

IND

no live price

Book	POR	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+360★	-470	+23.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.3± 1.1low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Portland FireIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop