Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+18NY

3-1

10082

POR

1-2

WNBAThu, May 14FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasNY -11.5

NY · top performer

Pauline Astier

G · #18

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Megan DiLeo

C · #17

11.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 1:06

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	28	22	8-14	1-4	5-6	+20	7	1
J. JonesC · #35	26	6	2-4	—	2-2	+26	9	3
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	17	8	3-6	2-5	—	+12	2	2
M. JohannesG · #23	28	3	1-7	1-7	—	+31	3	11
P. AstierG · #18	22	20	7-12	3-6	3-4	+16	3	2
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	2	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
A. FowlerF · #12	17	12	4-7	2-5	2-2	-6	0	1
H. XuC · #21	7	3	1-2	—	1-2	-3	2	2
R. GardnerG · #7	20	14	4-7	2-4	4-4	+5	5	5
J. VanlooG · #53	18	9	3-5	3-5	—	+2	0	4
R. AllenG · #9	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	-11	0	1
Team		100	34-67	15-38	17-20		32	32

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	25	11	4-11	2-6	1-1	-31	5	2
K. SmallsF · #8	16	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	0	4
E. EngstlerF · #21	19	11	4-7	2-3	1-2	-9	4	0
N. PuochF · #13	31	13	5-9	2-5	1-1	-5	2	2
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	22	6	3-6	0-2	—	-7	5	1
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	14	0	0-3	0-3	—	0	0	0
GustafsonC · #17	14	14	5-6	0-1	4-4	-14	3	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	4	1	—	—	1-2	+3	2	1
S. SuttonG · #1	20	8	3-13	1-5	1-4	-15	3	8
H. JonesG · #30	15	10	3-6	0-1	4-6	-6	3	2
S. BarkerG · #3	21	6	2-4	2-3	—	+1	3	2
Team		82	30-68	9-31	13-20		30	22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

34-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-68

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-31

17-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 13

NY96@

POR98

May 15

NY100@

POR82today

May 26

POR81@

NY74

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-62586%

POR+45518%

30· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -11.5↗SpreadBet NY -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat POR 100-82. P. Astier led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 24 REB · 19 AST

GS 55

Bench(6)

41 PTS · 8 REB · 13 AST

GS 32

PORstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 31

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR1st Quarter · 1:06 · 12-19

+8pp→ 44% WP

Marine Johannes · misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot

POR2nd Quarter · 8:28 · 17-25

+8pp→ 49% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Haley Jones assists)

NY2nd Quarter · 6:59 · 21-27

+8pp→ 55% WP

Breanna Stewart · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Han Xu assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	14	25	31	30	100
POR	20	17	16	29	82

Period scoring

NY won 3 · POR won 1

Astier 5

Gustafson 8

Vanloo 6

Geiselsoder 4

Stewart 11

Carleton 5

Gardner 9

Jones 22

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

51%

34-67

44%

30-68

39%

15-38

3PT

29%

9-31

85%

17-20

65%

13-20

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 100·POR 82
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 100·POR 82
Q4·0.1
Aubrey Griffin defensive rebound
NY 100·POR 82
Q4·0.1
Haley Jones misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
·
NY 100·POR 82
Q4·11.8
Rebecca Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Han Xu assists)
·
NY 100·POR 82
Q4·29.5
Haley Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NY 97·POR 82
Q4·29.5
Fire offensive team rebound
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·29.5
Haley Jones misses free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·29.5
Rebecca Allen shooting foul
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·35.3
Serah Williams defensive rebound
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·37.5
Serah Williams blocks Rebecca Allen 's 5-foot driving layup
·
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·49.4
Nyadiew Puoch makes driving layup
NY 97·POR 81
Q4·49.7
Julie Vanloo bad pass turnover (Nyadiew Puoch steals)
·
NY 97·POR 79
Q4·52.1
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nyadiew Puoch assists)
·
NY 97·POR 79
Q4·59.9
Rebekah Gardner makes running layup (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
NY 97·POR 76
Q4·1:04
Han Xu defensive rebound
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:06
Haley Jones misses 5-foot two point shot
·
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:16
Rebecca Allen enters the game for Alex Fowler
·
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:16
Alex Fowler offensive foul turnover
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:16
Alex Fowler offensive foul
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:18
Serah Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 95·POR 76
Q4·1:18
Fire offensive team rebound
NY 95·POR 75
Q4·1:18
Serah Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 95·POR 75
Q4·1:18
Aubrey Griffin shooting foul
NY 95·POR 75
Q4·1:28
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 95·POR 75
Q4·1:28
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 94·POR 75
Q4·1:28
Nyadiew Puoch personal foul
NY 93·POR 75
Q4·1:32
Haley Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NY 93·POR 75
Q4·1:32
Haley Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 93·POR 74
Q4·1:32
(01:32) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Liberty] charged with a timeout
NY 93·POR 73

Betting line

NY -11.5·O/U 174.5·NY -625/POR +455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Portland Fire and beat them, 100–82. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY -11.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 174.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

61.9%

50.7%

TOV%

ball control

13.7%

16.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

14.8%

20.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.4%

19.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
51.4%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
46.1%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.83

CLV pp

Open price

+500

Close price

+470

Open no-vig

16.0%

Close no-vig

16.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.0pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

no live price

POR

★ best

+455DraftKings

edge +27.0pp · implied 17.3%

Book	NY	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-625	+455★	+27.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.8± 8.7high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.8± 6.4high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.6± 3.2high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 1.6high
Breanna StewartNY
3.6± 2.7high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.7high

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Breanna StewartNY
1.3± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Lynx90Wings86Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop