May 23, 26sim 88
885
19(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
MIN
2-1
9086
DAL
1-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 90–86. Decided by 4.
MIN +3.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 178.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
21.0Game score
21
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
23.0Game score
27
Pts
3
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN2-1
9086
DAL1-2
MIN2-1DAL1-2
MIN
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 35 | 26 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | +11 | |
| 30 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +8 | |
| 34 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6 | |
eFG%.47744 ORB%.02444 DRB%.12144 | ||||||||
| 31 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 32 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +8 | |
| 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 90 | 31 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 16 | ||
| DNP: L. King, E. Hamzova | ||||||||
DAL
1-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 31 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 25 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 31 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.789 | ||||||||
| 16 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +8 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 86 | 26 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: L. Yueru, J. Quinerly | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
60
FG %
46
20
Ast
22
Season series
MIN leads series 1-0
May 15MIN90@DAL86today
MIN90@DAL86todayJun 10DAL@MINupcoming
DAL@MINupcomingJun 28MIN@DALupcoming
MIN@DALupcomingAug 9DAL@MINupcoming
DAL@MINupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.4h
Moneyline
MIN+14042%DAL-16662%15· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
178.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 1:57
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 31 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 31 min
27 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 90-86. C. Williams led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. DAL outscored the other side 28-18 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 96% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST
GS 73
Bench(4)
4 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
GS 2
DALstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST
GS 48
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 4:25 · 79-81
+20pp→ 45% WP
Kayla McBride · makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN4th Quarter · 1:57 · 83-83
+24pp→ 68% WP
Jessica Shepard · shooting foul
DAL4th Quarter · 13.1 · 88-85
+20pp→ 36% WP
Kayla McBride · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 90 |
| DAL | 28 | 20 | 22 | 16 | 86 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · DAL won 1
18
28
Q1
Williams 8
Siegrist 10
22
20
Q2
Williams 5
Siegrist 7
28
22
Q3
Howard 9
Bueckers 12
22
16
Q4
Howard 10
Bueckers 8
MIN
DAL
Shooting comparison
MIN
DAL
60%
35-58
FG
46%
31-67
46%
6-13
3PT
29%
5-17
78%
14-18
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 374 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 90·DAL 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 90·DAL 86
- Q4·1.1
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 90·DAL 86
−0.8pp
- Q4·3.1
Jessica Shepard misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 90·DAL 86
−2pp
- Q4·12.9
Azzi Fudd personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 86
−9pp
- Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIN 90·DAL 86
+8pp
- Q4·13.1
Wings Full timeout
MIN 90·DAL 86
−4pp
- Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 90·DAL 86
+6pp
- Q4·13.1
Alanna Smith enters the game for Aziaha James
·
MIN 89·DAL 86
- Q4·13.1
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Azzi Fudd
·
MIN 89·DAL 86
- Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 89·DAL 86
−3pp
- Q4·13.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·DAL 86
- Q4·13.1
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−8pp
- Q4·13.1
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
+16pp
- Q4·13.1
Aziaha James enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 88·DAL 85
- Q4·13.1
Azzi Fudd enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 88·DAL 85
- Q4·13.1
(00:13.1) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Lynx] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−8pp
- Q4·13.1
Lynx Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−22pp
- Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
+20pp
- Q4·17.1
Wings timeout
MIN 88·DAL 85
- Q4·17.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·DAL 85
- Q4·17.1
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
+7pp
- Q4·17.1
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 87·DAL 85
+3pp
- Q4·17.1
Arike Ogunbowale personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
−11pp
- Q4·20.3
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 87·DAL 85
−2pp
- Q4·26.9
Lynx timeout
MIN 87·DAL 85
- Q4·26.9
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
−12pp
- Q4·26.9
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
+9pp
- Q4·27.6
Olivia Miles blocks Odyssey Sims 's 7-foot floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·DAL 85
−14pp
- Q4·51.0
Natasha Howard makes 1-foot layup (Olivia Miles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·DAL 85
−8pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
35-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-67
60
FG %
46
6-13
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-17
14-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
20
Assists
22
16
Turnovers
11
Betting line
DAL -3.5·O/U 178.5·MIN +140/DAL -166
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.1%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.08
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+130
Close price
+142
Open no-vig
41.7%
Close no-vig
39.6%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Player projections
DAL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL17.7± 9.0low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN15.6± 11.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN15.1± 3.7low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.4± 6.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.6± 3.4low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL5.6± 3.1low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 3.2low
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.5± 5.1low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.0± 1.5low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.6low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN1.3± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
DAL
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.6
46.6%
34.5%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
88.4
PPG
85.4
88.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3