Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DAL?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIN

MIN

2-1

9086

DAL

1-2

WNBAThu, May 14FinalSeriesMIN leads series 3-0VegasDAL -3.5

MIN · top performer

Courtney Williams

G · #10

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Paige Bueckers

G · #5

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 1:57

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	35	26	11-14	—	4-6	+11	5	4
N. CoffeyF · #12	30	13	5-6	3-3	—	+8	8	1
K. McBrideG · #21	34	11	1-7	0-2	9-11	+6	8	1
C. WilliamsG · #10	31	21	9-10	3-4	—	+3	5	3
O. MilesG · #5	32	15	7-12	0-1	1-1	+8	2	6
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	13	0	—	—	—	-9	1	1
A. KosuF · #7	5	2	1-2	—	—	-3	0	1
E. CechovaF · #22	11	2	1-3	—	—	-8	2	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	11	0	0-4	0-3	—	+4	0	3
Team		90	35-58	6-13	14-18		31	20
DNP: L. King, E. Hamzova

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	31	7	3-8	0-1	1-2	-13	6	4
A. SmithF · #8	27	6	3-6	0-1	0-1	-6	4	5
O. SimsG · #1	25	11	4-8	1-2	2-2	-6	1	3
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	30	6	2-11	1-4	1-1	-1	4	1
P. BueckersG · #5	31	27	7-13	3-4	10-11	-6	3	8
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
M. SiegristF · #20	16	17	7-11	0-3	3-3	+9	4	1
A. KuierF · #34	6	0	—	—	—	+6	1	0
A. FuddG · #35	20	8	4-7	0-2	—	+8	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	11	4	1-3	—	2-2	-4	2	0
Team		86	31-67	5-17	19-22		26	22
DNP: L. Yueru, J. Quinerly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

35-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-67

FG %

6-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-17

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 3-0

May 15

MIN90@

DAL86today

Jun 10

DAL76@

MIN100

Jun 28

MIN85@

DAL77

Aug 9

DAL@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

MIN+14042%

DAL-16662%

15· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

178.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 90-86. C. Williams led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. DAL outscored the other side 28-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 96% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

4 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST

GS 2

DALstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 4:25 · 79-81

+20pp→ 45% WP

Kayla McBride · makes free throw 1 of 2

MIN4th Quarter · 1:57 · 83-83

+24pp→ 68% WP

Jessica Shepard · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 13.1 · 88-85

+20pp→ 36% WP

Kayla McBride · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	18	22	28	22	90
DAL	28	20	22	16	86

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · DAL won 1

Williams 8

Siegrist 10

Williams 5

Siegrist 7

Howard 9

Bueckers 12

Howard 10

Bueckers 8

MIN

DAL

Shooting comparison

MIN

DAL

60%

35-58

46%

31-67

46%

6-13

3PT

29%

5-17

78%

14-18

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 374 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 90·DAL 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 90·DAL 86
Q4·1.1
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 90·DAL 86
−0.8pp
Q4·3.1
Jessica Shepard misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 90·DAL 86
−2pp
Q4·12.9
Azzi Fudd personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 86
−9pp
Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIN 90·DAL 86
+8pp
Q4·13.1
Wings Full timeout
MIN 90·DAL 86
−4pp
Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 90·DAL 86
+6pp
Q4·13.1
Alanna Smith enters the game for Aziaha James
·
MIN 89·DAL 86
Q4·13.1
Jessica Shepard enters the game for Azzi Fudd
·
MIN 89·DAL 86
Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 89·DAL 86
−3pp
Q4·13.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·DAL 86
Q4·13.1
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−8pp
Q4·13.1
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
+16pp
Q4·13.1
Aziaha James enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
MIN 88·DAL 85
Q4·13.1
Azzi Fudd enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
MIN 88·DAL 85
Q4·13.1
(00:13.1) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Lynx] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−8pp
Q4·13.1
Lynx Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
−22pp
Q4·13.1
Kayla McBride personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·DAL 85
+20pp
Q4·17.1
Wings timeout
MIN 88·DAL 85
Q4·17.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·DAL 85
Q4·17.1
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
+7pp
Q4·17.1
Kayla McBride misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 87·DAL 85
+3pp
Q4·17.1
Arike Ogunbowale personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
−11pp
Q4·20.3
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 87·DAL 85
−2pp
Q4·26.9
Lynx timeout
MIN 87·DAL 85
Q4·26.9
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
−12pp
Q4·26.9
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·DAL 85
+9pp
Q4·27.6
Olivia Miles blocks Odyssey Sims 's 7-foot floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·DAL 85
−14pp
Q4·51.0
Natasha Howard makes 1-foot layup (Olivia Miles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·DAL 85
−8pp

Betting line

DAL -3.5·O/U 178.5·MIN +140/DAL -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 90–86. Decided by 4.

MIN +3.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 178.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

DAL

eFG%

shooting

65.5%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

19.5%

12.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

26.1%

26.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

24.1%

28.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

18.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
31.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
29.9%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
33.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.08

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+130

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DAL?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+42.2pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+140DraftKings

edge +42.2pp · implied 40.0%

DAL

no live price

Book	MIN	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+140★	-166	+42.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.3high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.1± 4.1high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.4± 3.1high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Liberty100Fire82Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop