Sep 17, 25sim 94
1783
14(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+28LV
LV
30-14
10375
LA
21-23
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 103–75. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
28.6Game score
23
Pts
19
Reb
4
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
12.2Game score
15
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV30-14
10375
LA21-23
LV30-14LA21-23
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +39 | |
| 33 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +33 | |
| 33 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +30 | |
| 31 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +34 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 27 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +23 | |
| 17 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -6 | |
| Team | 103 | 44 | 35 | 13 | 6 | 11 | ||
LA
21-23
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -28 | |
| 26 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -27 | |
| 34 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -24 | |
| 27 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | |
| 38 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -30 | |
| 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 21 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 75 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 14 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
42
35
Ast
23
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
May 31LA81@LV96
LA81@LV96Jun 12LA97@LV89
LA97@LV89Jul 30LV89@LA74
LV89@LA74Sep 12LV103@LA75today
LV103@LA75todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 4:42
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 19 REB · 4 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 27 min
15 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat LA 103-75. A. Wilson led with 23 PTS, 19 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 29-13 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 34 REB · 30 AST
GS 86
Bench(5)
32 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 22
LAstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
15 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST
GS 10
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 29 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 103 |
| LA | 13 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 75 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · LA won 0
29
13
Q1
Young 12
Hamby 7
24
21
Q2
Gray 10
Plum 7
24
24
Q3
Wilson 14
Barker 9
26
17
Q4
Loyd 6
Burrell 7
LV
LA
Shooting comparison
LV
LA
49%
38-78
FG
42%
31-73
49%
22-45
3PT
15%
4-26
83%
5-6
FT
90%
9-10
Play-by-play · 363 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 103·LA 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 103·LA 75
- Q4·0.6
shot clock turnover
LV 103·LA 75
- Q4·25.0
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 103·LA 75
- Q4·25.0
Dana Evans shooting foul
LV 103·LA 74
- Q4·25.0
Rae Burrell makes two point shot (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
LV 103·LA 74
- Q4·29.4
Dana Evans bad pass (Sarah Ashlee Barker steals)
·
LV 103·LA 72
- Q4·38.9
Julie Vanloo makes driving layup
LV 103·LA 72
- Q4·47.4
Megan Gustafson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dana Evans assists)
·
LV 103·LA 70
- Q4·57.1
Megan Gustafson defensive rebound
LV 100·LA 70
- Q4·1:00
Rae Burrell misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 100·LA 70
- Q4·1:09
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 100·LA 70
- Q4·1:09
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 99·LA 70
- Q4·1:09
Sania Feagin shooting foul
LV 98·LA 70
- Q4·1:23
Rae Burrell makes two point shot (Emma Cannon assists)
·
LV 98·LA 70
- Q4·1:29
Dana Evans bad pass (Emma Cannon steals)
·
LV 98·LA 68
- Q4·1:32
Kiah Stokes offensive rebound
LV 98·LA 68
- Q4·1:37
Aaliyah Nye misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 98·LA 68
- Q4·1:53
Rae Burrell makes driving layup (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
LV 98·LA 68
- Q4·1:59
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Jewell Loyd
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Chelsea Gray
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Dana Evans enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Sparks Full timeout
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·1:59
Chelsea Gray personal take foul
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·2:06
Jackie Young makes 25-foot three pointer (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 98·LA 66
- Q4·2:23
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 95·LA 66
- Q4·2:26
Julie Vanloo misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 95·LA 66
- Q4·2:33
NaLyssa Smith makes two point shot
LV 95·LA 66
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
LA
Home
38-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-73
49
FG %
42
22-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-26
5-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-10
35
Assists
23
11
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
LA
49.7%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
34.9%
3PT %
33.0
35.0%
91.0
PPG
86.0
91.5
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
20.8
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8