WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+19MIN

23-21

5372

MIN

34-10

WNBAThu, Sep 11FinalSeriesMIN wins series 4-0

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

11.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:51

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SalaunF · #13	30	5	1-12	0-6	3-4	-17	11	2
T. FagbenleC · #14	27	6	3-5	—	—	-13	4	1
I. RupertC · #12	25	8	3-7	2-6	—	-12	8	1
K. CharlesG · #6	24	8	4-11	0-3	—	-17	7	1
V. BurtonG · #22	31	8	2-11	0-2	4-4	-18	3	7
Bench
M. BillingsF · #25	15	6	2-3	—	2-2	-9	1	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	22	8	3-10	0-6	2-3	-9	2	0
L. AmihereF · #3	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	1	0
K. MartinG · #20	5	0	0-3	0-2	—	0	0	0
K. ChenG · #2	5	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. LeiteG · #0	12	1	0-3	0-1	1-2	0	1	2
Team		53	19-66	3-27	12-15		38	15
DNP: K. Thornton, T. Hayes

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	29	3	1-6	1-5	—	+5	2	3
A. SmithF · #8	18	0	0-4	0-3	—	+19	1	3
N. CollierF · #24	28	19	8-10	3-4	—	+8	4	2
K. McBrideG · #21	30	8	3-12	2-9	—	+23	4	4
C. WilliamsG · #10	29	6	3-11	0-1	—	+17	5	4
Bench
J. ShepardF · #15	23	11	4-7	—	3-7	+13	14	3
M. KliundikovaF · #77	9	2	1-1	—	—	-2	4	0
C. TaylorF · #20	2	0	0-3	0-1	—	0	0	0
A. KosuF · #7	5	0	—	—	—	0	2	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	24	21	8-12	3-5	2-2	+12	2	1
J. SherrodG · #00	2	2	1-1	—	—	0	1	0
Team		72	29-67	9-28	5-9		39	21
DNP: D. Carrington

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

19-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-67

FG %

3-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

5-9

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

MIN wins series 2-0

Sep 14

GS72@

MIN101

Sep 18

MIN75@

GS74

How it ended

MIN beat GS 72-53. N. Collier led with 19 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

18 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 3

MINstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 28

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS3rd Quarter · 1:28 · 41-45

+6pp→ 19% WP

Iliana Rupert · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	8	14	19	12	53
MIN	17	17	13	25	72

Period scoring

GS won 1 · MIN won 3

Charles 4

Collier 8

Zandalasini 5

Williams 4

Rupert 8

Collier 5

Billings 4

Hiedeman 11

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

29%

19-66

43%

29-67

11%

3-27

3PT

32%

9-28

80%

12-15

56%

5-9

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·15.9
Laeticia Amihere bad pass (Maria Kliundikova steals)
·
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·34.2
Jaylyn Sherrod makes layup
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·36.3
Laeticia Amihere lost ball turnover (Jaylyn Sherrod steals)
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·39.2
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·42.9
Camryn Taylor misses 6-foot two point shot
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·47.3
Lynx offensive team rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·47.3
Laeticia Amihere vs. Maria Kliundikova (Natisha Hiedeman gains possession)
· ·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·52.7
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:07
Jaylyn Sherrod defensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:09
Kate Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:22
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:26
Monique Billings blocks Camryn Taylor 's 9-foot two point shot
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:45
Monique Billings makes 10-foot jumper (Carla Leite assists)
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:57
Carla Leite defensive rebound
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:01
Camryn Taylor misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:18
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Carla Leite misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Official timeout
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Natisha Hiedeman shooting foul
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:36
Bridget Carleton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jessica Shepard assists)
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:38
Jessica Shepard offensive rebound
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·2:41
Bridget Carleton misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·2:54
Monique Billings makes 3-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·3:14
Jessica Shepard makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu assists)
·
GS 48·MIN 67

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Golden State Valkyries, 72–53. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

GS19/66 · 29%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim6/9

67%

In the paint4/14

29%

Mid-range6/16

38%

Top-of-arc 32/21

10%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/3

MIN29/67 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/18

67%

In the paint5/8

63%

Mid-range3/13

23%

Top-of-arc 36/21

29%

Left corner 33/6

50%

Right corner 30/1

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

eFG%

shooting

31.1%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

21.6%

19.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

37.5%

37.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.2%

7.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Kaila CharlesGS · G
ORB%.10186
Courtney WilliamsMIN · G
AST/TO2.286

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

GS19/66 · 29%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim6/9

67%

In the paint4/14

29%

Mid-range6/16

38%

Top-of-arc 32/21

10%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/3

MIN29/67 · 43%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/18

67%

In the paint5/8

63%

Mid-range3/13

23%

Top-of-arc 36/21

29%

Left corner 33/6

50%

Right corner 30/1

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
72.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.4%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
22.2± 6.3high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.3± 7.7high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.4± 2.9high
Kiah StokesGS
5.1± 1.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
5.1± 3.4high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.3± 1.9high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.7± 2.7high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.2high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
2.1± 1.9high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.3± 1.0high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.8± 1.6high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.7± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop