WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+19MIN

23-21

5372

MIN

34-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAThu, Sep 11FinalSeriesMIN wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Golden State Valkyries, 72–53. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

11.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

GS23-21

MIN34-10

GS23-21MIN34-10

23-21

	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	+/-
J. Salaun★F · #13	30	5	11	2	1	0	0	-17
T. Fagbenle★C · #14	27	6	4	1	2	0	2	-13
I. Rupert★C · #12	25	8	8	1	1	1	3	-12
K. Charles★G · #6	24	8	7	1	3	1	5	-17
V. Burton★G · #22	31	8	3	7	5	1	2	-18
M. BillingsF · #25	15	6	1	1	1	1	0	-9
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	22	8	2	0	1	0	5	-9
C. LeiteG · #0	12	1	1	2	0	0	1	0

Team		53	38	15	14	4	20
DNP: K. Thornton, T. Hayes

MIN

34-10

	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	+/-
B. Carleton★F · #6	29	3	2	3	1	0	2	+5
A. Smith★F · #8	18	0	1	3	2	3	1	+19
N. Collier★F · #24	28	19	4	2	2	0	2	+8
K. McBride★G · #21	30	8	4	4	1	0	4	+23
C. Williams★G · #10	29	6	5	4	3	1	2	+17
J. ShepardF · #15	23	11	14	3	0	0	2	+13
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+
M. KliundikovaF · #77	9	2	4	0	1	0	0	-2
N. HiedemanG · #2	24	21	2	1	1	1	3	+12

Team		72	39	21	12	5	17
DNP: D. Carrington

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

MIN wins series 2-0

Sep 14

GS72@

MIN101

Sep 18

MIN75@

GS74

Headlines · top performers

Game flowGS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:51

V. Burton

Game leader · 31 min

8 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST

MIN

N. Collier

Game leader · 28 min

19 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

MIN beat GS 72-53. N. Collier led with 19 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 33 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

18 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 3

MINstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 28

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS3rd Quarter · 1:28 · 41-45

+6pp→ 19% WP

Iliana Rupert · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	8	14	19	12	53
MIN	17	17	13	25	72

Period scoring

GS won 1 · MIN won 3

Charles 4

Collier 8

Zandalasini 5

Williams 4

Rupert 8

Collier 5

Billings 4

Hiedeman 11

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

29%

19-66

43%

29-67

11%

3-27

3PT

32%

9-28

80%

12-15

56%

5-9

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·15.9
Laeticia Amihere bad pass (Maria Kliundikova steals)
·
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·34.2
Jaylyn Sherrod makes layup
GS 53·MIN 72
Q4·36.3
Laeticia Amihere lost ball turnover (Jaylyn Sherrod steals)
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·39.2
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·42.9
Camryn Taylor misses 6-foot two point shot
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·47.3
Lynx offensive team rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·47.3
Laeticia Amihere vs. Maria Kliundikova (Natisha Hiedeman gains possession)
· ·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·52.7
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:07
Jaylyn Sherrod defensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:09
Kate Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:22
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:26
Monique Billings blocks Camryn Taylor 's 9-foot two point shot
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:45
Monique Billings makes 10-foot jumper (Carla Leite assists)
·
GS 53·MIN 70
Q4·1:57
Carla Leite defensive rebound
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:01
Camryn Taylor misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:18
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Carla Leite misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 51·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Camryn Taylor enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Official timeout
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:20
Natisha Hiedeman shooting foul
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:36
Bridget Carleton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jessica Shepard assists)
·
GS 50·MIN 70
Q4·2:38
Jessica Shepard offensive rebound
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·2:41
Bridget Carleton misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·2:54
Monique Billings makes 3-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
GS 50·MIN 67
Q4·3:14
Jessica Shepard makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu assists)
·
GS 48·MIN 67

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

19-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-67

FG %

3-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

5-9

Assists

Turnovers

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
ORB%.10999+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Veronica BurtonGS
15.6± 5.8low
Natasha HowardMIN
15.3± 11.8low
Olivia MilesMIN
14.5± 3.8low

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.4± 4.8low
Kaila CharlesGS
6.3± 2.4low
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.3± 3.5low

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 4.2low
Olivia MilesMIN
5.3± 2.9low
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.2± 2.5low

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.8± 2.7low
Laeticia AmihereGS
1.1± 1.5low
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.4low

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.9± 2.4low
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.8± 1.6low
Courtney WilliamsMIN
1.3± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

MIN

41.3%

FG%

44.9

▶

51.7%

36.1%

3PT %

◀

33.0

35.3%

86.4

PPG

86.0

▶

89.7

19.1

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.3

10.1

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop