Sep 12, 25sim 92
991
19(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+21DAL
PHX
27-17
7697
DAL
10-34
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Phoenix Mercury, 97–76. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
14.3Game score
14
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
24.1Game score
24
Pts
8
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-17
7697
DAL10-34
PHX27-17DAL10-34
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 20 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 17 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 24 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -22 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -25 | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| Team | 76 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 18 | ||
DAL
10-34
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +21 | |
| 20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 30 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +21 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | |
| 26 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +30 | |
| 21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 31 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +29 | |
| Team | 97 | 42 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 9 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
49
21
Ast
24
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 12DAL80@PHX93
DAL80@PHX93Jul 4PHX89@DAL98
PHX89@DAL98Jul 8DAL72@PHX102
DAL72@PHX102Sep 12PHX76@DAL97today
PHX76@DAL97todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:00
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 20 min
14 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 30 min
24 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
DAL beat PHX 97-76. P. Bueckers led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 45% of ptsStarters(5)
34 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST
GS 30
Bench(6)
42 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
DALstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST
GS 49
Bench(5)
46 PTS · 20 REB · 3 AST
GS 40
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL2nd Quarter · 4:37 · 37-38
+9pp→ 51% WP
Amy Okonkwo · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Haley Jones assists)
DAL2nd Quarter · 54.6 · 45-54
+10pp→ 80% WP
Amy Okonkwo · makes 24-foot three point shot (Paige Bueckers assists)
PHX2nd Quarter · 1:00 · 45-51
+12pp→ 30% WP
Paige Bueckers · blocks Sami Whitcomb 's 2-foot driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 28 | 19 | 13 | 16 | 76 |
| DAL | 25 | 32 | 25 | 15 | 97 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · DAL won 2
28
25
Q1
Sabally 9
James 7
19
32
Q2
Brown 5
Okonkwo 11
13
25
Q3
Copper 3
Berger 6
16
15
Q4
Williams 5
Okonkwo 5
PHX
DAL
Shooting comparison
PHX
DAL
45%
26-58
FG
49%
41-84
43%
12-28
3PT
29%
8-28
71%
12-17
FT
64%
7-11
Play-by-play · 375 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 76·DAL 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 76·DAL 97
- Q4·15.6
Aziaha James defensive rebound
PHX 76·DAL 97
- Q4·18.6
Kiana Williams misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
PHX 76·DAL 97
- Q4·34.0
Aziaha James makes driving layup
PHX 76·DAL 97
- Q4·49.3
Kitija Laksa makes 29-foot three point jumper (Lexi Held assists)
·
PHX 76·DAL 95
- Q4·1:00
Lexi Held defensive rebound
PHX 73·DAL 95
- Q4·1:00
Haley Jones misses layup
PHX 73·DAL 95
- Q4·1:08
Kalani Brown makes layup (Kiana Williams assists)
· ·
PHX 73·DAL 95
- Q4·1:18
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 71·DAL 95
- Q4·1:20
Diamond Miller misses driving layup
PHX 71·DAL 95
- Q4·1:33
Kiana Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kitija Laksa assists)
· ·
PHX 71·DAL 95
- Q4·1:44
Haley Jones makes driving layup
PHX 68·DAL 95
- Q4·1:48
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
PHX 68·DAL 93
- Q4·1:50
Lexi Held misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 68·DAL 93
- Q4·2:07
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
PHX 68·DAL 93
- Q4·2:08
Kalani Brown blocks Christyn Williams 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
PHX 68·DAL 93
- Q4·2:20
Kitija Laksa makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Lexi Held assists)
·
PHX 68·DAL 93
- Q4·2:36
Christyn Williams makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
PHX 66·DAL 93
- Q4·2:50
Kiana Williams out of bounds bad pass turnover
·
PHX 66·DAL 91
- Q4·2:56
Aziaha James bad pass (Kathryn Westbeld steals)
·
PHX 66·DAL 91
- Q4·3:06
Kitija Laksa personal foul
PHX 66·DAL 91
- Q4·3:20
Kathryn Westbeld makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 66·DAL 91
- Q4·3:20
Ajae Petty enters the game for Amy Okonkwo
·
PHX 65·DAL 91
- Q4·3:20
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 65·DAL 91
- Q4·3:20
Kathryn Westbeld misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 65·DAL 91
- Q4·3:20
Christyn Williams shooting foul
·
PHX 65·DAL 91
- Q4·3:36
Amy Okonkwo makes 3-foot layup (Diamond Miller assists)
·
PHX 65·DAL 91
- Q4·3:49
Christyn Williams enters the game for Paige Bueckers
· ·
PHX 65·DAL 89
- Q4·3:49
Wings defensive team rebound
PHX 65·DAL 89
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
26-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-84
45
FG %
49
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-28
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-11
21
Assists
24
18
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 10 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
DAL
42.3%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
31.4%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
83.7
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3