Live · 12
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+25LV
LV

LV

1-1

8762
CON

CON

0-2

WNBATue, May 20FinalSeriesLV wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 87–62. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

21.4Game score

22

Pts

10

Reb

4

Ast

CON · top performer

CON
Tina Charles

Tina Charles

C · #31

11.6Game score

20

Pts

5

Reb

0

Ast

WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

DNP: M. Gustafson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

39

FG %

34

16

Ast

16

Season series

LV wins series 4-0

May 20LVLV87@CONCON62today
Jun 26CONCON59@LVLV85
Jul 6LVLV86@CONCON68
Aug 11CONCON86@LVLV94

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLV ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:47

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 29 min

22 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

CONCON
T. Charles

T. Charles

C

Game leader · 26 min

20 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

LV beat CON 87-62. A. Wilson led with 22 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 28-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs LV

0255075100Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
LVLVstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 31 REB · 11 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

17 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 11

CONCONstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 7

Bench(6)

27 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LV2nd Quarter · 5:47 · 32-21
+7pp→ 89% WP

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · misses 4-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
LV242826987
CON1316171662

Period scoring

LV won 3 · CON won 1

24
13

Q1

Young 11

Charles 6

28
16

Q2

Loyd 14

Charles 6

26
17

Q3

Wilson 9

Rivers 4

9
16

Q4

Nye 3

Charles 20

LV
CON

Shooting comparison

LV
CON

39%

26-67

FG

34%

22-64

38%

10-26

3PT

18%

3-17

83%

25-30

FT

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 404 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    LV 87·CON 62

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    LV 87·CON 62

  3. Q4·16.2

    Rayah Marshall defensive rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  4. Q4·19.1

    Kierstan Bell misses 32-foot three point step back jumpshot

    LV 87·CON 62

  5. Q4·27.2

    Aces defensive team rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  6. Q4·30.1

    Jacy Sheldon misses running pullup jump shot

    LV 87·CON 62

  7. Q4·37.1

    Rayah Marshall defensive rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  8. Q4·37.1

    Dana Evans misses two point shot

    LV 87·CON 62

  9. Q4·55.1

    Rayah Marshall enters the game for Saniya Rivers

    ·

    LV 87·CON 62

  10. Q4·55.1

    Aces defensive team rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  11. Q4·56.1

    Kierstan Bell blocks Saniya Rivers 's 3-foot two point shot

    ·

    LV 87·CON 62

  12. Q4·1:01

    Saniya Rivers defensive rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  13. Q4·1:03

    Dana Evans misses 13-foot two point shot

    LV 87·CON 62

  14. Q4·1:26

    Elizabeth Kitley defensive rebound

    LV 87·CON 62

  15. Q4·1:28

    Elizabeth Kitley blocks Jacy Sheldon 's 8-foot driving layup

    ·

    LV 87·CON 62

  16. Q4·1:48

    Dana Evans makes driving layup

    LV 87·CON 62

  17. Q4·1:59

    Elizabeth Kitley defensive rebound

    LV 85·CON 62

  18. Q4·2:02

    Jacy Sheldon misses 12-foot pullup jump shot

    LV 85·CON 62

  19. Q4·2:12

    Haley Peters enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa

    ·

    LV 85·CON 62

  20. Q4·2:12

    Tiffany Mitchell personal foul

    LV 85·CON 62

  21. Q4·2:22

    Kariata Diaby defensive rebound

    LV 85·CON 62

  22. Q4·2:23

    Elizabeth Kitley misses 5-foot two point shot

    LV 85·CON 62

  23. Q4·2:32

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    LV 85·CON 62

  24. Q4·2:34

    Robyn Parks misses running pullup jump shot

    LV 85·CON 62

  25. Q4·2:40

    Robyn Parks defensive rebound

    LV 85·CON 62

  26. Q4·2:42

    Tiffany Mitchell misses driving layup

    LV 85·CON 62

  27. Q4·2:49

    Robyn Parks makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Olivia Nelson-Ododa assists)

    ·

    LV 85·CON 62

  28. Q4·3:06

    Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2

    LV 85·CON 60

  29. Q4·3:06

    Kierstan Bell enters the game for Crystal Bradford

    ·

    LV 84·CON 60

  30. Q4·3:06

    Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2

    LV 84·CON 60

Team stats

LV

Away

Stat

CON

Home

26-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

22-64

39

FG %

34

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-17

25-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

16

Assists

16

11

Turnovers

16

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP
LVLV26/67 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/25
48%
In the paint2/6
33%
Mid-range2/10
20%
Top-of-arc 36/16
38%
Left corner 33/6
50%
Right corner 31/4
25%
CONCON22/64 · 34%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim14/23
61%
In the paint3/13
23%
Mid-range2/11
18%
Top-of-arc 31/15
7%
Left corner 31/1
100%
Right corner 31/1
100%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 9 players in cohort
  • A'ja WilsonLV · C
    USG%.32599+
  • Kiah StokesGS · C
    AST/TO3.697
  • Jackie YoungLV · G
    AST/TO3.396
  • Marina MabreyTOR · G
    USG%.29196
  • Chelsea GrayLV · G
    AST/TO2.181

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP
LVLV26/67 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim12/25
48%
In the paint2/6
33%
Mid-range2/10
20%
Top-of-arc 36/16
38%
Left corner 33/6
50%
Right corner 31/4
25%
CONCON22/64 · 34%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim14/23
61%
In the paint3/13
23%
Mid-range2/11
18%
Top-of-arc 31/15
7%
Left corner 31/1
100%
Right corner 31/1
100%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · CON favored

  • Elo Static

    59.7%

    P(CON win)

    32%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    58.7%

    P(CON win)

    33%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    61.3%

    P(CON win)

    35%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    27.0± 10.2low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    15.3± 13.4low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    14.6± 12.1low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    10.7± 5.4low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    9.7± 6.3low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.4± 3.7low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Leila LacanCON
    4.8± 3.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    2.3± 2.2low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    1.3± 1.7low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    0.9± 1.0medium

Steals

  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.3± 1.6low
  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    1.3± 1.2medium
  • Leila LacanCON
    1.2± 0.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

LV

LV

league avg

CON

CON

48.7%

FG%

◀

44.3

42.1%

36.8%

3PT %

◀

32.9

26.1%

91.4

PPG

◀

85.2

78.1

23.3

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.4

13.1

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop