Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

35-27-20

COL

55-16-11

NHLTue, Apr 21FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -270

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	13:08
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	1	0	6	0	2	0	23:51
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	9:07
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	-1	2	6	1	0	9:39
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	20:01
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	20:13
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	24:36
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	17:54
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	9:19
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	20:58
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:38
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	-1	1	2	6	2	25:23
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	17:36
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-1	2	1	6	0	21:25
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	28:46
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:52
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	18:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	36	2	34	.944	67:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:12
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	15:59
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	2	3	1	2	14:47
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	10:05
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	1	4	4	2	2	18:20
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	17:46
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	23:12
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	21:02
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	21:09
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:08
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:38
N. RoyC · #10	1	0	1	1	3	3	0	13:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	18:21
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	20:33
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	1	3	0	2	2	28:49
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	20:41
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	16:14
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	27:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	25	1	24	.960	67:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

COL leads series 2-0

Apr 19

LA1@

COL2

Apr 22

LA1@

COL2today

Apr 24

COL4@

LA2

Apr 26

COL5@

LA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+22031%

COL-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 63 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat LA 2-1. G. Landeskog led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	0	0	1	0	1
COL	0	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

LA won 0 · COL won 1

COL

Play-by-play · 398 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·7:44
Game End
LA 1·COL 2
1st OT·7:44
End of OT
LA 1·COL 2
1st OT·7:44
Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Manson (1), Nazem Kadri (1)
· ·
LA 1·COL 2
1st OT·7:42
Josh Manson shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:36
Joel Kiviranta Tip-In Wide Left
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:32
Joel Kiviranta shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:27
Josh Manson shot blocked by Mathieu Joseph
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:10
Samuel Helenius hit Gabriel Landeskog
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:08
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·7:02
Jeff Malott shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·6:53
Joel Edmundson shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·6:44
Brett Kulak hit Jared Wright
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·6:39
Joel Armia shot blocked by Sam Malinski
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·6:16
Drew Doughty shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·5:40
Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·5:34
Devon Toews shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·4:46
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·4:46
Icing
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·4:26
Jack Drury faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·4:26
Off-side
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·3:39
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·3:32
Alex Laferriere hit Sam Malinski
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·3:06
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·3:06
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·3:05
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·2:31
Giveaway by Cale Makar
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·2:27
Cale Makar Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·2:22
Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·2:12
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
LA 1·COL 1
1st OT·2:03
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·COL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +220/COL -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Los Angeles Kings, 2–1 in overtime.

LA +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Cale MakarCOL · D
SKATE MPH23.999+
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
iXG40.699+
Martin NecasCOL · C
BURSTS7599
Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Parker KellyCOL · C
SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
72.0%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
72.0%
P(COL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
72.0%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-270

Close price

-270

Open no-vig

70.0%

Close no-vig

70.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.