Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1UTA

UTA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLTue, Apr 21FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -148

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	12:04
L. CooleyC · #92	1	0	2	3	3	1	2	21:39
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	5	3	1	2	17:01
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	1	2	5	2	2	0	19:01
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	17:34
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:13
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	6:54
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	15:31
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	21:19
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:54
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	6:21
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	2	2	0	3	0	0	10:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	12:07
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:08
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:24
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	18:08
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	2	1	2	4	0	25:02
M. WeegarD · #52	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	22:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	21	2	19	.905	59:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	-2	2	4	0	2	15:36
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:35
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	10:57
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	-1	1	1	1	2	24:28
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	12:54
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:06
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	10:08
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	22:28
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:57
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:39
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	8:46
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	21:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	3	2	20:42
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	1	1	3	0	20:55
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:23
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	16:22
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	20:31
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-2	4	1	0	0	21:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	29	3	27	.931	57:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2today

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+12445%

VGK-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VGK 3-2. D. Guenther led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	1	1	1	3
VGK	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · VGK won 0

UTA

VGK

Play-by-play · 351 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:55
Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:54
Noah Hanifin Slap Shot Short
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:45
Jack Eichel shot blocked by John Marino
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:26
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:07
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:07
Icing
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:31
Logan Cooley shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:27
Jack Eichel hit John Marino
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:26
John Marino shot blocked by Mark Stone
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Dylan Guenther
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:44
Lawson Crouse hit Mitch Marner
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:33
Mitch Marner Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:20
Jack Eichel Snap Shot Wide Right
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:09
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:09
Goalie Stopped
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:08
Brett Howden Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:06
MacKenzie Weegar hit Brett Howden
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:28
Nate Schmidt shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:22
JJ Peterka hit Brayden McNabb
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:19
Michael Carcone Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·15:38
Brayden McNabb hit Clayton Keller
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·15:15
Kailer Yamamoto hit Ivan Barbashev
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·15:09
Kailer Yamamoto Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·14:55
Logan Cooley Tip-In Wide Right
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·14:55
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·14:52
Noah Hanifin hit Dylan Guenther
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·14:11
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 3·VGK 2
3rd·14:11
Puck in Crowd
UTA 3·VGK 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA +124/VGK -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 3–2.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
DIST MI75.199+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
DIST MI74.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.