Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

MTL

48-24-10

50-26-6

NHLTue, Apr 21FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -185

MTL · top performer

Lane Hutson

D · #48

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	1	0	1	4	5	1	2	17:21
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:02
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	1	-2	1	3	0	0	24:50
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	10:53
P. DanaultC · #24	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	18:38
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	20:39
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	1	2	2	3	2	16:39
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	10:04
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	18:57
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-2	2	2	0	5	25:33
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-2	2	2	1	0	25:08
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	16:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	0	3	4	2	27:18
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-2	3	3	3	2	26:24
L. HutsonD · #48	1	0	-1	6	0	2	0	32:00
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	2	0	3	2	28:47
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:05
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	4	1	6	9:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	34	3	31	.912	72:48

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CirelliC · #71	0	2	3	0	3	0	0	22:43
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	1	5	1	0	12:54
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	19:58
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	2	1	1	4	18:41
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	1	4	1	0	2	25:10
B. HagelLW · #38	1	1	3	1	1	0	7	23:52
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:25
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	0	2	5	1	1	2	23:22
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	1	1	2	13:32
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	10:49
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	21:34
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	8:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:38
E. CernakD · #81	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	21:26
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	23:31
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	21:06
J.J. MoserD · #90	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	29:14
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	27:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	27	2	25	.926	72:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3today

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+15439%

TB-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 72 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat MTL 3-2. N. Kucherov led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	1	1	0	0	2
TB	1	0	1	1	3

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · TB won 2

MTL

Play-by-play · 428 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·12:48
Game End
MTL 2·TB 3
1st OT·12:48
End of OT
MTL 2·TB 3
1st OT·12:48
J.J. Moser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2)
·
MTL 2·TB 3
1st OT·12:42
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·12:42
Icing
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·12:32
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·11:51
Kaiden Guhle hit Nick Paul
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·11:40
Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Brayden Point
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·11:14
Giveaway by Lane Hutson
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·11:00
Cole Caufield hit Darren Raddysh
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·10:36
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·10:36
Off-side
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·10:26
Josh Anderson hit Declan Carlile
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:57
Brayden Point Deflected Wide Right
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:51
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:32
Takeaway by Ivan Demidov
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:19
Alexandre Texier hit Ryan McDonagh
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:14
Giveaway by Kaiden Guhle
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:06
Nick Paul faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·9:06
Off-side
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·8:58
Dominic James Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·8:35
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·8:35
Icing
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:47
Jake Evans faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:47
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:45
Corey Perry Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:35
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:35
Off-side
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:23
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
MTL 2·TB 2
1st OT·7:23
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +154/TB -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.7%
P(TB win)
9%
weight
Xg Blend
57.1%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL