Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

53-22-7

OTT

44-27-11

NHLSat, Apr 25FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -142

CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	2	0	1	5	2	0	2	21:27
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:27
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	10:03
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	4	1	4	3:09
T. HallLW · #71	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:54
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	12:28
S. JarvisC · #24	0	2	1	1	1	1	0	19:47
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	15:24
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	6:38
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	19:17
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:37
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	1	3	6	1	4	16:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	23:51
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:45
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	21:16
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	5:16
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	26:22
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	1	0	0	6	18:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	27	2	25	.926	59:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:15
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	1	-2	2	3	1	2	20:35
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	7:18
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	-1	2	8	0	0	17:23
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	8:32
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:06
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	6	1	3	0	17:24
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	17:50
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	23:16
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	-2	1	2	1	0	25:57
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	1	5	1	2	20:37
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	3	0	2	2	27:17
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	5:47
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	19:40
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	1	1	3	2	16:01
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	1	0	3	2	17:00
C. YakemchukD · #58	0	2	-1	3	0	0	0	19:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	28	2	26	.929	58:01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

11.1

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR wins series 4-0

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-14259%

OTT+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 70 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 4-2. S. Aho led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	0	1	3	4
OTT	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · OTT won 0

CAR

OTT

Play-by-play · 369 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:44
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:44
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:36
Claude Giroux shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:32
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:32
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:21
Jordan Staal hit Tim Stützle
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:20
Dylan Cozens hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:16
Dylan Cozens Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:12
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:12
Icing
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·19:09
Sean Walker Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·18:57
Tim Stützle hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·18:45
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·18:45
Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (2), Jalen Chatfield (1)
· ·
CAR 4·OTT 2
3rd·18:23
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:11
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:11
Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Carter Yakemchuk (2)
· ·
CAR 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:03
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·18:03
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·18:01
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·17:48
Jordan Martinook hit Tim Stützle
·
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·17:38
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·17:38
Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sean Walker (1)
· ·
CAR 3·OTT 1
3rd·17:33
Dylan Cozens hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:56
Tyler Kleven Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:55
Giveaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:43
Jalen Chatfield hit Michael Amadio
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·15:47
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·OTT 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -142/OTT +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
48.7%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.7%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.7%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL