NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

DAL

50-20-12

MIN

46-24-12

NHLSat, Apr 25FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasMIN -130

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Dallas Stars, 3–2 in overtime.

DAL +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Brock Faber

D · #7

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	16:46
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:26
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	16:52
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	-1	2	3	0	2	20:50
M. DucheneC · #95	0	2	0	3	0	1	0	21:33
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:49
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	20:10
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:34
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	24:30
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	2	0	2	3	1	0	22:59
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	25:13
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	17:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	21:36
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	28:49
M. HeiskanenD · #4	1	0	-2	6	0	1	0	33:33
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-3	3	0	3	0	34:17
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	10:32
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	6	1	5	0	27:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	42	3	39	.929	79:31

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	29:52
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	23:34
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	1	4	3	0	0	28:44
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	15:34
M. FolignoLW · #17	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	12:25
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	1	1	7	5	1	2	22:42
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	23:43
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	28:35
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	1	1	6	1	0	16:49
N. SturmC · #78	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	11:20
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:24
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	14:06
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	25:42
B. FaberD · #7	1	1	2	5	2	4	2	35:47
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	37:21
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:26
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	26:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	45	2	43	.956	79:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 18

MIN6@

DAL1

Apr 21

MIN2@

DAL4

Apr 23

DAL4@

MIN3

Apr 25

DAL2@

MIN3today

Apr 29

MIN4@

DAL2

Apr 30

DAL2@

MIN5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+11048%

MIN-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

DAL

J. Robertson

Top skater

1 G · 7 SOG

J. Oettinger

Goaltender39-save night

39 SV · 3 GA · .929

MIN

B. Faber

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG

J. Wallstedt

Goaltender43-save night

43 SV · 2 GA · .956

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 3-2. B. Faber led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DAL	1	1	0	0	2
MIN	1	0	1	1	3

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · MIN won 2

DAL

MIN

Play-by-play · 400 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·19:31
Game End
DAL 2·MIN 3
1st OT·19:31
End of OT
DAL 2·MIN 3
1st OT·19:31
Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (1), Kirill Kaprizov (5)
· ·
DAL 2·MIN 3
1st OT·18:43
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Mikko Rantanen
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·18:28
Marcus Johansson Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·18:12
Michael McCarron hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·17:19
Sam Steel Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·16:20
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·16:20
Goalie Stopped
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·16:16
Brock Faber Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:49
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:40
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:40
Goalie Stopped
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:38
Marcus Johansson Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:25
Jared Spurgeon shot blocked by Radek Faksa
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:21
Takeaway by Jonas Brodin
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:19
Giveaway by Vladimir Tarasenko
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:16
Giveaway by Lian Bichsel
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·15:11
Michael McCarron hit Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:57
Marcus Foligno shot blocked by Michael McCarron
· ·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:56
Giveaway by Lian Bichsel
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:54
Michael McCarron hit Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:50
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:50
Puck in Crowd
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:36
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:36
On-Ice Official
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:34
Brock Faber Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:15
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:15
Goalie Stopped
DAL 2·MIN 2
1st OT·14:12
Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 2

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL +110/MIN -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
iXG38.499+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.295
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C
SHOT MPH92.195

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jason Robertson · DAL25:420.5957.7%58.6%25:42 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 57.7% CF · 58.6% xGF
Joel Eriksson Ek · MIN29:000.5553.2%54.9%29:00 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 53.2% CF · 54.9% xGF
Ryan Hartman · MIN24:420.5067.9%75.5%24:42 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 67.9% CF · 75.5% xGF
Matt Duchene · DAL23:300.4856.3%56.3%23:30 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 56.3% CF · 56.3% xGF
Kirill Kaprizov · MIN28:360.4863.1%73.6%28:36 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 63.1% CF · 73.6% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN30:000.4354.5%57.9%30:00 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 54.5% CF · 57.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jesper Wallstedt · MIN43–2.956+1.1843–2 · .956 SV% · +1.18 GSAx
Jake Oettinger · DAL39–3.929+0.3539–3 · .929 SV% · +0.35 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
53.9%
P(MIN win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.9%
P(MIN win)
11%
weight
Xg Blend
54.3%
P(MIN win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands