Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SEA

FLA

33-30-3

SEA

31-26-9

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesSEA leads series 1-0VegasFLA -130

FLA · top performer

Eetu Luostarinen

C · #27

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	-2	0	1	0	0	11:41
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	14:38
V. HinostrozaC · #24	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	9:35
L. KuninC · #71	0	1	-1	1	4	1	2	10:43
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:04
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:00
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	13:21
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:34
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	17:08
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	18:21
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:29
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	18:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:24
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	22:46
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	22:11
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-2	0	2	3	0	18:32
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	18:54
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-3	0	2	0	0	15:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	25	6	19	.760	59:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:37
B. CattonC · #27	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	7:51
J. EberleRW · #7	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:20
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	17:22
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	11:47
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:04
B. McMannC · #74	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	19:36
B. MeyersC · #59	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	15:46
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	16:13
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	1	0	2	2	0	2	17:47
R. WintertonC · #26	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:37
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	18:32
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	3	0	2	1	0	17:29
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	21:03
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	19:17
B. MontourD · #62	0	1	1	2	0	1	2	23:00
J. OleksiakD · #24	1	1	3	1	1	4	0	15:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

Mar 16

FLA2@

SEA6today

Mar 24

SEA4@

FLA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-13057%

SEA+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat FLA 6-2. K. Kakko led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	1	2
SEA	3	1	2	6

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · SEA won 3

FLA

SEA

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·SEA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·SEA 6
3rd·19:58
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·SEA 6
3rd·19:58
Eetu Luostarinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (21), Mackie Samoskevich (17)
· ·
FLA 2·SEA 6
3rd·19:57
Gustav Forsling Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·19:53
Eetu Luostarinen Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·19:50
Eetu Luostarinen Tip-In saved by Joey Daccord
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·19:02
Luke Kunin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·18:41
Niko Mikkola Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·17:40
Berkly Catton faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·17:40
Icing
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·17:15
Donovan Sebrango Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·16:21
Eetu Luostarinen Snap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·16:13
Anton Lundell shot blocked by Ben Meyers
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·16:02
Anton Lundell Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·15:58
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Ryker Evans
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·15:43
Giveaway by Ryker Evans
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·14:47
Takeaway by Berkly Catton
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·14:37
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·14:37
Jamie Oleksiak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (15), Jordan Eberle (26)
· ·
FLA 1·SEA 6
3rd·13:40
Freddy Gaudreau hit Carter Verhaeghe
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·13:22
Carter Verhaeghe hit Eeli Tolvanen
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·13:18
Takeaway by Chandler Stephenson
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·12:41
Eeli Tolvanen Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·12:26
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·12:26
Goalie Stopped
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·12:24
Vinnie Hinostroza Tip-In saved by Joey Daccord
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·12:12
Niko Mikkola hit Matty Beniers
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·11:44
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
FLA 1·SEA 5
3rd·11:44
Brandon Montour Interference against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 1·SEA 5

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -130/SEA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Florida Panthers, 6–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(SEA win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.3%
P(SEA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
53.2%
P(SEA win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Brady TkachukFLA
3.1± 2.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Matthew TkachukFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Florida PanthersSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL