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FINAL+1ANA
ANA

ANA

37-27-3

43
MTL

MTL

36-20-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-0VegasMTL -142

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–3.

ANA +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Nick Suzuki

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
ANA37-27-3MTL36-20-10
ANA

ANA

37-27-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

36-20-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Season series

ANA wins series 2-0

Mar 7MTLMTL5@ANAANA6
Mar 15ANAANA4@MTLMTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA+12045%
MTLMTL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat MTL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA1214
MTL0303

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · MTL won 1

1
0

1

2
3

2

1
0

3

ANA
MTL

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  4. 3rd·19:56

    Off-side

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  6. 3rd·19:48

    Timeout - Home

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  7. 3rd·19:48

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  8. 3rd·19:47

    Juraj Slafkovský Deflected saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  9. 3rd·19:45

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  10. 3rd·19:40

    Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  11. 3rd·19:01

    Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  12. 3rd·18:52

    Chris Kreider Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  13. 3rd·18:45

    Chris Kreider shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  14. 3rd·18:45

    Giveaway by Lane Hutson

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  15. 3rd·18:41

    Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  16. 3rd·18:33

    Giveaway by Cole Caufield

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  17. 3rd·18:15

    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Alex Killorn

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  18. 3rd·18:00

    Tim Washe Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  19. 3rd·17:34

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  20. 3rd·17:34

    Puck in Crowd

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  21. 3rd·17:30

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  22. 3rd·17:30

    Cutter Gauthier Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (4), Ryan Poehling (21)

    · ·

    ANA 4·MTL 3

  23. 3rd·16:51

    Cutter Gauthier hit Mike Matheson

    ·

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  24. 3rd·16:00

    Kaiden Guhle hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  25. 3rd·16:00

    Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  26. 3rd·15:45

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  27. 3rd·15:45

    Puck in Benches

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  28. 3rd·15:39

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  29. 3rd·15:39

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 3·MTL 3

  30. 3rd·15:37

    Leo Carlsson Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    ANA 3·MTL 3

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

28

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

30

15

Blocks

20

8

Giveaways

19

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +120/MTL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR