Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

ANA

37-27-3

MTL

36-20-10

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-0VegasMTL -142

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	2	1	2	5	1	0	0	16:16
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:59
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	0	0	2	2	16:38
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	8:05
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	18:57
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	14:50
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	15:36
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-2	2	0	0	2	15:48
T. TerryRW · #19	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	14:23
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:17
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	0	2	2	3	0	12:04
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	14:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:59
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	20:12
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	20:22
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	15:19
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	24:05
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	16:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	1	0	2	3	0	2	15:11
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	-2	4	0	1	0	19:48
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:13
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	12:37
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	20:12
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:46
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:22
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:39
A. NewhookC · #15	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	16:12
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	0	5	1	2	0	21:21
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	1	0	3	0	2	0	24:18
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:12
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	0	1	0	5	0	23:01
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	17:05
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	0	0	5	0	25:39
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	21:03
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	28	4	24	.857	58:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA wins series 2-0

Mar 7

MTL5@

ANA6

Mar 15

ANA4@

MTL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+12045%

MTL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat MTL 4-3. L. Carlsson led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	2	1	4
MTL	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · MTL won 1

ANA

MTL

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:56
Tim Washe faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:56
Off-side
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:48
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:48
Timeout - Home
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:48
Goalie Stopped
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:47
Juraj Slafkovský Deflected saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:45
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:40
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·19:01
Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:52
Chris Kreider Snap Shot Hit Left Post
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:45
Chris Kreider shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:45
Giveaway by Lane Hutson
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:41
Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:33
Giveaway by Cole Caufield
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:15
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Alex Killorn
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·18:00
Tim Washe Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·17:34
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·17:34
Puck in Crowd
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·17:30
Tim Washe faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·17:30
Cutter Gauthier Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (4), Ryan Poehling (21)
· ·
ANA 4·MTL 3
3rd·16:51
Cutter Gauthier hit Mike Matheson
·
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·16:00
Kaiden Guhle hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·16:00
Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·15:45
Jake Evans faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·15:45
Puck in Benches
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·15:39
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·15:39
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·MTL 3
3rd·15:37
Leo Carlsson Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
ANA 3·MTL 3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +120/MTL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–3.

ANA +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Leo Carlsson · ANA16:180.8566.7%71.9%16:18 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 66.7% CF · 71.9% xGF
Oliver Kapanen · MTL14:360.5460.7%56.4%14:36 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 60.7% CF · 56.4% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL21:420.4942.6%40.9%21:42 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 42.6% CF · 40.9% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL20:120.4344.4%53.0%20:12 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 44.4% CF · 53.0% xGF
Beckett Sennecke · ANA15:480.4250.0%54.0%15:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 50.0% CF · 54.0% xGF
Jeffrey Viel · ANA12:180.3953.1%60.3%12:18 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 53.1% CF · 60.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Lukas Dostal · ANA27–3.900+0.2827–3 · .900 SV% · +0.28 GSAx
Jacob Fowler · MTL24–4.857-0.1924–4 · .857 SV% · -0.19 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.3%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
59.3%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.3%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.3%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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