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FINAL+3OTT
SJ

SJ

32-27-6

47
OTT

OTT

34-23-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -205

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off San Jose Sharks, 7–4.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Tyler Toffoli

Tyler Toffoli

C · #73

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
7
SJ32-27-6OTT34-23-9
SJ

SJ

32-27-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

34-23-9

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Nov 23OTTOTT3@SJSJ2
Mar 15SJSJ4@OTTOTT7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+17037%
OTTOTT-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat SJ 7-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ2114
OTT1337

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · OTT won 2

2
1

1

1
3

2

1
3

3

SJ
OTT

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  3. 3rd·19:36

    Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  4. 3rd·18:50

    Giveaway by Michael Misa

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  5. 3rd·18:08

    Nikolas Matinpalo hit Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  6. 3rd·18:02

    Shakir Mukhamadullin shot blocked by Lars Eller

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  7. 3rd·17:53

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  8. 3rd·17:53

    Icing

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  9. 3rd·17:43

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Adam Gaudette

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  10. 3rd·17:43

    Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (18), Artem Zub (20)

    · ·

    SJ 4·OTT 7

  11. 3rd·17:34

    Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  12. 3rd·17:18

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  13. 3rd·17:18

    Icing

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  14. 3rd·16:21

    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by William Eklund

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  15. 3rd·16:14

    Fabian Zetterlund Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  16. 3rd·16:13

    Fabian Zetterlund Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  17. 3rd·16:04

    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by William Eklund

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  18. 3rd·15:42

    Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  19. 3rd·14:50

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Philipp Kurashev

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  20. 3rd·14:50

    Dylan Cozens Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (28)

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 6

  21. 3rd·14:41

    Ridly Greig Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  22. 3rd·13:52

    Giveaway by Thomas Chabot

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  23. 3rd·13:48

    Collin Graf shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  24. 3rd·13:17

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  25. 3rd·13:17

    Off-side

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  26. 3rd·13:08

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Adam Gaudette

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  27. 3rd·13:08

    Drake Batherson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (19), Claude Giroux (30)

    · ·

    SJ 4·OTT 5

  28. 3rd·12:04

    Giveaway by Jordan Spence

    SJ 4·OTT 4

  29. 3rd·12:00

    Dylan Cozens hit Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 4

  30. 3rd·11:43

    Macklin Celebrini hit Artem Zub

    ·

    SJ 4·OTT 4

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

23

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

32

19

Blocks

12

20

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +170/OTT -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
    SKATE MPH22.786
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082
  • Lars EllerOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.581

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR