Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at OTT?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

32-27-6

OTT

34-23-9

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -205

SJ · top performer

Tyler Toffoli

C · #73

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	-1	2	3	0	0	20:40
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	17:07
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	11:33
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	13:01
C. GrafRW · #51	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:10
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:00
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:58
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	13:27
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	14:22
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	16:36
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:12
T. ToffoliC · #73	1	1	-1	2	0	1	0	14:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	1	1	0	4	1	2	20:35
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	2	1	0	4	0	20:26
M. FerraroD · #38	1	1	0	2	0	2	0	20:33
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	17:07
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	2	0	2	0	4	0	17:02
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	18:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BrossoitG · #93	23	6	18	.783	59:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	17:54
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:47
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	15:08
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	-1	1	3	0	0	16:19
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	2	2	3	2	0	13:42
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	13:17
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	10:58
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:47
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	19:15
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:34
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	16:26
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	1	1	1	3	5	0	0	12:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	28:29
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:53
T. KlevenD · #43	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	19:31
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	15:47
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	17:35
A. ZubD · #2	0	2	1	1	0	3	2	19:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Nov 23

OTT3@

SJ2

Mar 15

SJ4@

OTT7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+17037%

OTT-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat SJ 7-4. D. Batherson led the way — 2 G · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	2	1	1	4
OTT	1	3	3	7

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · OTT won 2

OTT

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·19:36
Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·18:50
Giveaway by Michael Misa
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·18:08
Nikolas Matinpalo hit Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·18:02
Shakir Mukhamadullin shot blocked by Lars Eller
·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·17:53
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·17:53
Icing
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·17:43
Lars Eller faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·17:43
Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (18), Artem Zub (20)
· ·
SJ 4·OTT 7
3rd·17:34
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·17:18
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·17:18
Icing
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·16:21
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by William Eklund
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·16:14
Fabian Zetterlund Backhand Wide Left
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·16:13
Fabian Zetterlund Tip-In Wide Right
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·16:04
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by William Eklund
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·15:42
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·14:50
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Philipp Kurashev
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·14:50
Dylan Cozens Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (28)
·
SJ 4·OTT 6
3rd·14:41
Ridly Greig Backhand Wide Right
·
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:52
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:48
Collin Graf shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:17
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:17
Off-side
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:08
Lars Eller faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·13:08
Drake Batherson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (19), Claude Giroux (30)
· ·
SJ 4·OTT 5
3rd·12:04
Giveaway by Jordan Spence
SJ 4·OTT 4
3rd·12:00
Dylan Cozens hit Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 4·OTT 4
3rd·11:43
Macklin Celebrini hit Artem Zub
·
SJ 4·OTT 4

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +170/OTT -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off San Jose Sharks, 7–4.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brady Tkachuk · FLA16:360.7271.0%69.1%16:36 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 71.0% CF · 69.1% xGF
Collin Graf · SJS17:120.5331.4%44.8%17:12 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 31.4% CF · 44.8% xGF
Warren Foegele · OTT13:300.4850.0%57.2%13:30 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 50.0% CF · 57.2% xGF
Shane Pinto · OTT19:120.3873.3%73.0%19:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 73.3% CF · 73.0% xGF
William Eklund · OTT17:300.3340.0%43.9%17:30 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 40.0% CF · 43.9% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT16:420.3351.7%42.4%16:42 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 51.7% CF · 42.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT19–4.826-1.4019–4 · .826 SV% · -1.40 GSAx
#847631618–6.783-3.9418–6 · .783 SV% · -3.94 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.4%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at OTT?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL