Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at EDM?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2EDM

NSH

29-28-9

EDM

33-26-9

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -192

NSH · top performer

Fedor Svechkov

C · #40

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Zach Hyman

LW · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:25
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:05
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	17:37
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:03
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:58
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	16:44
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:38
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:13
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-1	4	0	0	2	19:05
F. SvechkovC · #40	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	9:39
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	10:14
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	15:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	9:16
N. HagueD · #41	0	1	1	3	1	1	5	20:49
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	28:54
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	17:17
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	25:51
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	29	2	27	.931	58:08

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	18:54
L. DraisaitlC · #29	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3:12
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	1	5	1	2	9:53
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	11:36
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	2	5	0	0	0	19:51
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:57
C. McDavidC · #97	0	3	2	2	0	0	0	24:08
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:10
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	2	4	0	5	14:32
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	14:31
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	12:52
M. SavoieC · #22	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	26:06
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	19:48
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	3	2	18:14
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	20:23
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:45
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	16:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	27	1	26	.963	59:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 2-1

Jan 7

NSH2@

EDM6

Jan 14

EDM3@

NSH4

Mar 16

NSH1@

EDM3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+16038%

EDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat NSH 3-1. Z. Hyman led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
EDM	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · EDM won 2

NSH

EDM

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:53
Luke Evangelista Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:47
Jason Dickinson Snap Shot Wide Right
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:38
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:38
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:38
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:36
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:30
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:28
Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:13
Luke Evangelista Backhand Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:12
Jonathan Marchessault shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:11
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:10
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:07
Ryan O'Reilly Deflected Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:06
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:06
On-Ice Official
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·19:02
Roman Josi shot blocked by Connor Murphy
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·18:53
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·18:53
Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77)
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
3rd·18:45
Steven Stamkos Slap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·18:12
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·17:42
Connor McDavid Backhand saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·16:58
Ozzy Wiesblatt Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·16:51
Filip Forsberg Wrap-around Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·16:46
Takeaway by Matthew Wood
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·16:29
Nicolas Hague Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Ryan O'Reilly
NSH 1·EDM 2
3rd·15:52
Ryan O'Reilly Backhand Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 2

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Nashville Predators, 3–1.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
59.2%
P(EDM win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.2%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.2%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at EDM?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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