Mar 25, 26sim 98
183
27(H)6
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2EDM
NSH
29-28-9
13
EDM
33-26-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
dmonton Oilers held off Nashville Predators, 3–1.
EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NSH · top performer
Fedor Svechkov
C · #40
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
EDM · top performer
Connor McDavid
C · #97
3Points
0
G
3
A
—
SOG
NHL · Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
NSH29-28-9
13
EDM33-26-9
NSH29-28-9EDM33-26-9
NSH
29-28-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
EDM
33-26-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
13
PIM
13
Season series
EDM wins series 2-1
Jan 7NSH2@EDM6
NSH2@EDM6Jan 14EDM3@NSH4
EDM3@NSH4Mar 16NSH1@EDM3today
NSH1@EDM3todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
EDM -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NSH+16038%EDM-19266%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
EDM beat NSH 3-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
NSH won 0 · EDM won 2
0
1
1
0
1
2
1
1
3
NSH
EDM
Play-by-play · 296 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:53
Luke Evangelista Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:47
Jason Dickinson Snap Shot Wide Right
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:38
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:38
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:38
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:36
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:30
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:28
Roman Josi Snap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:13
Luke Evangelista Backhand Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:12
Jonathan Marchessault shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:11
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:10
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:07
Ryan O'Reilly Deflected Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:06
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:06
On-Ice Official
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·19:02
Roman Josi shot blocked by Connor Murphy
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·18:53
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·18:53
Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77)
·
NSH 1·EDM 3
- 3rd·18:45
Steven Stamkos Slap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·18:12
Jonathan Marchessault Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·17:42
Connor McDavid Backhand saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·16:58
Ozzy Wiesblatt Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·16:51
Filip Forsberg Wrap-around Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·16:46
Takeaway by Matthew Wood
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·16:29
Nicolas Hague Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Ryan O'Reilly
NSH 1·EDM 2
- 3rd·15:52
Ryan O'Reilly Backhand Wide Right
·
NSH 1·EDM 2
Team stats
NSH
Away
Stat
EDM
Home
27
Shots
30
0.0
PCT
25.0
13
PIM
13
22
Faceoffs W
30
9
Blocks
9
18
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +160/EDM -192
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
Jake WalmanEDM · DSHOT MPH99.599
Ryan O'ReillyNSH · CDIST MI265.898- Connor McDavidEDM · CBURSTS5498
Brady SkjeiNSH · DSKATE MPH23.497
Filip ForsbergNSH · LWDIST MI246.195
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · EDM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(EDM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+160
Close price
+160
Open no-vig
36.9%
Close no-vig
36.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss