Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

STL

27-30-10

WPG

28-28-10

NHLSun, Mar 15FinalSeriesWPG leads series 2-1VegasWPG -108

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Haydn Fleury

D · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	10:19
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	16:30
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:16
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:03
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	21:13
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	14:13
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	13:24
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	19:53
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	11:13
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	15:27
R. ThomasC · #18	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	22:18
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:42
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:18
J. HollD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:42
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	15:12
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	24:58
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-1	4	2	1	0	22:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	16	3	13	.813	56:13

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	16:02
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:57
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	16:47
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	9:10
B. LambertC · #93	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:08
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	17:22
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:11
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	16:53
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	11:24
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	22:12
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:35
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:53
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	22:53
H. FleuryD · #24	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	11:32
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	24:54
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	5	1	2	20:25
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	23:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	31	2	29	.935	59:52

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG leads series 2-1

Dec 18

WPG0@

STL1

Jan 21

STL1@

WPG3

Mar 15

STL2@

WPG3today

Apr 10

WPG3@

STL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL-11253%

WPG-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat STL 3-2. H. Fleury led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	0	2	2
WPG	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

STL won 1 · WPG won 1

STL

WPG

Play-by-play · 268 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:56
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:56
Icing
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:38
Morgan Barron Wrist Shot Wide Left
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:09
Pius Suter faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:09
Dylan Holloway Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (3), Jimmy Snuggerud (20)
· ·
STL 2·WPG 3
3rd·19:06
Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:57
Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:56
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Josh Morrissey
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Eric Comrie
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:27
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:27
Timeout - Visitor
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:27
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:25
Dylan Holloway Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
· ·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:15
Jimmy Snuggerud faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:15
On-Ice Official
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:13
Colton Parayko shot blocked by Morgan Barron
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:02
Josh Morrissey hit Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:17
Giveaway by Josh Morrissey
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:12
Dylan Samberg hit Dylan Holloway
· ·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:37
Adam Lowry hit Robert Thomas
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:20
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Dylan Holloway
· ·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:20
Icing
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:14
Elias Salomonsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:13
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:13
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:08
Theo Lindstein Backhand saved by Eric Comrie
·
STL 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:49
Pius Suter Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
STL 1·WPG 3

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL -112/WPG -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off St. Louis Blues, 3–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (WPG won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Holloway · STL21:180.9577.5%90.3%21:18 TOI · 0.95 iXG · 77.5% CF · 90.3% xGF
Cole Perfetti · WPG17:060.7555.9%60.4%17:06 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 55.9% CF · 60.4% xGF
Jimmy Snuggerud · STL20:000.5877.5%89.4%20:00 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 77.5% CF · 89.4% xGF
Jordan Kyrou · WSH14:180.4666.7%69.5%14:18 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 66.7% CF · 69.5% xGF
Mark Scheifele · WPG22:180.3742.9%38.2%22:18 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 42.9% CF · 38.2% xGF
Pius Suter · STL15:300.3360.7%56.5%15:30 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 60.7% CF · 56.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Eric Comrie · WPG29–2.935+1.3529–2 · .935 SV% · +1.35 GSAx
Jordan Binnington · STL13–3.813-1.5813–3 · .813 SV% · -1.58 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL