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FINAL+1VAN
WSH

WSH

24-21-6

34
VAN

VAN

17-28-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesVAN wins series 2-0VegasWSH -180

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks held off Washington Capitals, 4–3.

VAN +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Dylan Strome

Dylan Strome

C · #17

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

VAN
Brock Boeser

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
WSH24-21-6VAN17-28-5
WSH

WSH

24-21-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VAN

VAN

17-28-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

10

Season series

VAN wins series 2-0

Oct 19VANVAN4@WSHWSH3
Jan 22WSHWSH3@VANVAN4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH-18064%
VANVAN+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat WSH 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH2013
VAN2204

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · VAN won 1

2
2

1

0
2

2

1
0

3

WSH
VAN

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Takeaway by Jakob Chychrun

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  4. 3rd·19:22

    John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  5. 3rd·18:55

    Takeaway by John Carlson

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  6. 3rd·18:30

    Dylan Strome Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  7. 3rd·17:26

    Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  8. 3rd·16:46

    Drew O'Connor hit Matt Roy

    ·

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  9. 3rd·16:37

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  10. 3rd·16:37

    Dylan Strome Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (11), John Carlson (31)

    · ·

    WSH 3·VAN 4

  11. 3rd·16:34

    Justin Sourdif Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  12. 3rd·16:33

    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Filip Hronek

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  13. 3rd·16:33

    John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  14. 3rd·16:30

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Teddy Blueger

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  15. 3rd·16:30

    Icing

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  16. 3rd·16:26

    Marcus Pettersson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    · ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  17. 3rd·16:09

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  18. 3rd·15:59

    Alex Ovechkin Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  19. 3rd·15:59

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Teddy Blueger

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  20. 3rd·15:59

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  21. 3rd·15:57

    Jakob Chychrun Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  22. 3rd·15:44

    Anthony Beauvillier hit Marcus Pettersson

    · ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  23. 3rd·15:44

    Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson

    · ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  24. 3rd·15:08

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  25. 3rd·15:08

    Icing

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  26. 3rd·15:01

    Liam Ohgren shot blocked by Matt Roy

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  27. 3rd·14:55

    Ethen Frank hit Filip Hronek

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  28. 3rd·14:50

    Filip Hronek shot blocked by Ethen Frank

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  29. 3rd·14:45

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Teddy Blueger

    ·

    WSH 2·VAN 4

  30. 3rd·14:45

    Icing

    WSH 2·VAN 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

32

Shots

25

66.7

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

10

33

Faceoffs W

21

14

Blocks

13

15

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -180/VAN +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Brock BoeserVAN · RW
    SHOT MPH96.498
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VAN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

VAN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    3.5± 1.4high
  • Jake DeBruskVAN
    3.1± 2.4high
  • Evander KaneVAN
    2.5± 1.8high

Goals

  • Jake DeBruskVAN
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    0.5± 1.1high
  • Tom WilsonWSH
    0.5± 0.7high

Points

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Ilya ProtasWSH
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Brock BoeserVAN
    0.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR