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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

26-14-11

32
VAN

VAN

17-30-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 25FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-0VegasPIT -148

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 3–2.

VAN +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Ben Kindel

Ben Kindel

C · #81

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

VAN
Teddy Blueger

Teddy Blueger

C · #53

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
PIT26-14-11VAN17-30-5
PIT

PIT

26-14-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VAN

VAN

17-30-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

0

Season series

PIT wins series 2-0

Oct 21VANVAN1@PITPIT5
Jan 25PITPIT3@VANVAN2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-14860%
VANVAN+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat VAN 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT0303
VAN0022

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · VAN won 1

0
0

1

3
0

2

0
2

3

PIT
VAN

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Bryan Rust Illegal check to head against Brock Boeser

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Rickard Rakell hit Brock Boeser

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  5. 3rd·19:57

    Brock Boeser Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  6. 3rd·19:56

    Drew O'Connor Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  7. 3rd·19:54

    Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  8. 3rd·19:46

    Brock Boeser hit Ryan Shea

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  9. 3rd·19:46

    Giveaway by Ryan Shea

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  10. 3rd·19:07

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  11. 3rd·19:05

    Drew O'Connor Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  12. 3rd·18:57

    Kris Letang hit Linus Karlsson

    · ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  13. 3rd·18:53

    Drew O'Connor Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  14. 3rd·18:36

    Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    · ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  15. 3rd·18:36

    Icing

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  16. 3rd·18:32

    Noel Acciari Wrist Shot Wide Left

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  17. 3rd·18:29

    Jake DeBrusk shot blocked by Kris Letang

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  18. 3rd·18:27

    Evander Kane Deflected saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  19. 3rd·18:23

    Brett Kulak hit Jake DeBrusk

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  20. 3rd·17:45

    Brett Kulak Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  21. 3rd·17:19

    Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Drew O'Connor

    · ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  22. 3rd·17:09

    Drew O'Connor Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  23. 3rd·16:41

    Conor Garland Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  24. 3rd·16:40

    Sidney Crosby hit Liam Ohgren

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  25. 3rd·16:07

    Zeev Buium Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  26. 3rd·16:03

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  27. 3rd·15:49

    Zeev Buium shot blocked by Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  28. 3rd·15:43

    Filip Chytil faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  29. 3rd·15:43

    Icing

    PIT 3·VAN 2

  30. 3rd·15:35

    Kris Letang hit Max Sasson

    ·

    PIT 3·VAN 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

25

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

0

28

Faceoffs W

23

14

Blocks

13

18

Giveaways

16

2

Takeaways

7

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT -148/VAN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Brock BoeserVAN · RW
    SHOT MPH96.498
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.595

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VAN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VAN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

VAN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jake DeBruskVAN
    3.1± 2.4high
  • Rickard RakellPIT
    3.0± 2.1high
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT
    2.7± 1.7high

Goals

  • Evgeni MalkinPIT
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Jake DeBruskVAN
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Brock BoeserVAN
    0.4± 1.0high

Points

  • Evgeni MalkinPIT
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Brock BoeserVAN
    0.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR