NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

TOR

19-15-7

NYI

23-15-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriesNYI lead series 1-0VegasTOR -115

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 4–3 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Auston Matthews

C · #34

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

TOR19-15-7

NYI23-15-4

TOR19-15-7NYI23-15-4

TOR

19-15-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

23-15-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI lead series 1-0

Jan 4

TOR3@

NYI4today

Mar 17

NYI3@

TOR1

Apr 9

TOR3@

NYI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-11553%

NYI-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat TOR 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	0	2	1	0	3
NYI	0	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NYI won 2

TOR

NYI

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:11
Game End
TOR 3·NYI 4
OT·4:11
End of OT
TOR 3·NYI 4
OT·4:11
Matthew Schaefer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (22), Emil Heineman (7)
· ·
TOR 3·NYI 4
OT·3:52
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
OT·2:06
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
OT·1:38
Matthew Knies Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
OT·1:05
Matias Maccelli Tip-In Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
OT·0:00
John Tavares faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·19:35
Giveaway by Anders Lee
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·19:27
Scott Laughton Snap Shot saved by David Rittich
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·19:07
Giveaway by Morgan Rielly
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·19:00
Max Domi shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·18:29
Giveaway by Morgan Rielly
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:58
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
· ·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:33
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Adam Pelech
· ·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:15
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:15
Emil Heineman Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (21), Tony DeAngelo (13)
· ·
TOR 3·NYI 3
3rd·16:13
Simon Benoit hit Casey Cizikas
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·15:46
Marc Gatcomb hit Morgan Rielly
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·15:11
Matthew Schaefer hit John Tavares
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:37
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Bobby McMann
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:18
Simon Benoit hit Jonathan Drouin
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:15
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:08
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Matthew Benning
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:08
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:08
Giveaway by Matt Benning
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·13:52
Matthew Benning shot blocked by Auston Matthews
·
TOR 3·NYI 2
3rd·13:51
Matthew Knies hit Simon Holmstrom
·
TOR 3·NYI 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR -115/NYI -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Mathew BarzalNYI
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands