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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

21-15-7

21
PHI

PHI

22-12-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasPHI -122

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Easton Cowan

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
1
TOR21-15-7PHI22-12-8
TOR

TOR

21-15-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

22-12-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Nov 1TORTOR5@PHIPHI2
Jan 9TORTOR2@PHIPHI1today
Mar 3PHIPHI3@TORTOR2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10250%
PHIPHI-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat PHI 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
TOR00112
PHI01001

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

1

0
1

2

1
0

3

1
0

OT

TOR
PHI

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:48

    Game End

    TOR 2·PHI 1

  2. OT·2:48

    End of OT

    TOR 2·PHI 1

  3. OT·2:48

    Easton Cowan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (24)

    ·

    TOR 2·PHI 1

  4. OT·2:34

    Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  5. OT·2:26

    Easton Cowan Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  6. OT·2:18

    Matvei Michkov Wrap-around saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  7. OT·1:24

    Takeaway by Owen Tippett

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  8. OT·1:19

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  9. OT·1:06

    Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  10. OT·0:58

    Giveaway by Auston Matthews

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  11. OT·0:44

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  12. OT·0:19

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  13. OT·0:19

    On-Ice Official

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  14. OT·0:16

    Christian Dvorak Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  15. OT·0:13

    Takeaway by Trevor Zegras

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  16. OT·0:00

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  17. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  18. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  19. 3rd·18:50

    Bobby McMann Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  20. 3rd·18:27

    Garnet Hathaway hit Brandon Carlo

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  21. 3rd·18:07

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  22. 3rd·18:03

    Giveaway by Simon Benoit

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  23. 3rd·18:02

    Giveaway by Travis Sanheim

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  24. 3rd·17:38

    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Matvei Michkov

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  25. 3rd·17:23

    Bobby McMann shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  26. 3rd·17:00

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  27. 3rd·15:46

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Owen Tippett

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  28. 3rd·15:17

    John Tavares faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  29. 3rd·15:17

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 1·PHI 1

  30. 3rd·15:16

    Noah Juulsen hit Matthew Knies

    ·

    TOR 1·PHI 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

23

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

35

Faceoffs W

16

13

Blocks

11

17

Giveaways

8

6

Takeaways

5

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR +102/PHI -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Philippe MyersTOR · D
    SHOT MPH99.395
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR