NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

NYR

20-18-5

FLA

21-16-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 2FinalSeriesNYR lead series 1-0VegasFLA -135

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 5–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

5Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Sam Bennett

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR20-18-5

FLA21-16-3

NYR20-18-5FLA21-16-3

NYR

20-18-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

21-16-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYR lead series 1-0

Jan 3

NYR5@

FLA1today

Mar 29

FLA1@

NYR3

Apr 13

NYR2@

FLA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+11447%

FLA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat FLA 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	2	1	2	5
FLA	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

NYR won 3 · FLA won 0

NYR

FLA

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·19:57
Mackie Samoskevich shot blocked by Carson Soucy
·
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·19:00
Jeff Petry hit Brett Berard
·
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·18:47
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·18:47
Off-side
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·18:32
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·18:32
Mika Zibanejad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none
NYR 5·FLA 1
3rd·17:54
Mika Zibanejad Snap Shot Wide Right
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Video Review
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
On-Ice Official
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:33
Brad Marchand Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:25
Sam Reinhart shot blocked by Carter Verhaeghe
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:16
Carter Verhaeghe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:15
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Carter Verhaeghe
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:52
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:44
Aaron Ekblad Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:38
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:38
Carson Soucy Interference against A.J. Greer
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:37
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Carson Soucy
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·16:13
A.J. Greer Backhand saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·15:49
Giveaway by Carter Verhaeghe
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·15:44
Sam Carrick hit Jeff Petry
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·15:41
Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by Jonny Brodzinski
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·15:33
Anton Lundell shot blocked by Matthew Robertson
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·14:41
Alexis Lafrenière Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·14:36
Takeaway by Evan Rodrigues
NYR 4·FLA 1
3rd·14:16
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
NYR 4·FLA 1

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +114/FLA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Sam BennettFLA · C
DIST MI239.693
Alexis LafreniereNYR · LW
DIST MI231.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

FLA vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high
Matthew TkachukFLA
2.6± 1.7high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichFLA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands