NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

NYR

19-18-5

WSH

21-14-5

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesWSH leads series 2-1VegasWSH -135

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off New York Rangers, 6–3.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Tom Wilson

RW · #43

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR19-18-5

WSH21-14-5

NYR19-18-5WSH21-14-5

NYR

19-18-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WSH

21-14-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

Oct 12

WSH1@

NYR0

Dec 24

NYR7@

WSH3

Dec 31

NYR3@

WSH6today

Apr 5

WSH1@

NYR8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+11447%

WSH-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat NYR 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	1	3
WSH	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · WSH won 2

NYR

WSH

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 3·WSH 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 3·WSH 6
3rd·19:52
Carson Soucy Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 3·WSH 6
3rd·19:11
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
NYR 3·WSH 6
3rd·19:11
Justin Sourdif Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (19), Aliaksei Protas (15)
· ·
NYR 3·WSH 6
3rd·18:37
Adam Fox shot blocked by John Carlson
·
NYR 3·WSH 5
3rd·18:16
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
NYR 3·WSH 5
3rd·18:16
Timeout - Visitor
NYR 3·WSH 5
3rd·18:16
Braden Schneider Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (4)
·
NYR 3·WSH 5
3rd·17:23
Will Borgen hit Brandon Duhaime
·
NYR 2·WSH 5
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Jonny Brodzinski
NYR 2·WSH 5
3rd·16:48
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Leonard
·
NYR 2·WSH 5
3rd·16:37
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
NYR 2·WSH 5
3rd·16:37
Tom Wilson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (16)
·
NYR 2·WSH 5
3rd·16:28
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·16:11
Will Borgen hit Tom Wilson
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·16:01
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·16:01
Puck in Benches
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:55
Vladislav Gavrikov shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:49
Alexis Lafrenière Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:49
Giveaway by Tom Wilson
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:17
Giveaway by Adam Fox
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:12
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:12
Goalie Stopped
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:10
Alexis Lafrenière Tip-In saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·14:27
Alex Ovechkin Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:59
Takeaway by Aliaksei Protas
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:34
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:34
Aliaksei Protas Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (11), Nic Dowd (7)
· ·
NYR 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:16
Connor McMichael Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
NYR 2·WSH 3

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +114/WSH -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Ethen FrankWSH · C
BURSTS22797
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WSH vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Ryan LeonardWSH
2.5± 0.9high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
2.2± 1.0high

Goals

Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high
Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands