NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

15-10-9

18-13-3

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 18FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasTB -230

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 2–1.

LA +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Oliver Bjorkstrand

RW · #22

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

LA15-10-9

TB18-13-3

LA15-10-9TB18-13-3

15-10-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

18-13-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

Dec 19

LA2@

TB1today

Jan 2

TB5@

LA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+19034%

TB-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat TB 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	0	2	0	2
TB	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

LA won 1 · TB won 1

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:51
Nick Paul faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:51
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:50
Brayden Point Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:24
Joel Edmundson hit Jake Guentzel
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:14
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:12
Nick Paul faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:12
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·19:09
Oliver Bjorkstrand Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:55
Nick Paul faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:55
Corey Perry Misconduct
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:55
Corey Perry Holding the stick against Charle-Edouard D'Astous served by Alex Turcotte
· ·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:23
Trevor Moore hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:14
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:14
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:12
Nick Paul Tip-In saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:05
Nick Paul faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:05
Icing
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·18:00
Takeaway by Corey Perry
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·17:38
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·17:01
Zemgus Girgensons hit Mikey Anderson
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:44
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Pontus Holmberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:44
Puck in Netting
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:28
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Pontus Holmberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:26
Oliver Bjorkstrand Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:22
Giveaway by Corey Perry
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·16:20
Takeaway by Corey Perry
LA 2·TB 1
3rd·15:59
Dominic James Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·TB 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +190/TB -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 2 skaters with EDGE

Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
SKATE MPH22.786

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+190

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands