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FINAL+5UTA
UTA

UTA

19-19-3

72
NYI

NYI

22-15-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -125

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into New York Islanders and beat them, 7–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

NYI
Maxim Shabanov

Maxim Shabanov

RW · #49

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at New York Islanders · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
2
UTA19-19-3NYI22-15-4
UTA

UTA

19-19-3

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYI

NYI

22-15-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 15NYINYI3@UTAUTA2
Jan 1UTAUTA7@NYINYI2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-12556%
NYINYI+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat NYI 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0347
NYI0112

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · NYI won 0

0
0

1

3
1

2

4
1

3

UTA
NYI

Play-by-play · 271 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  3. 3rd·19:26

    Kevin Stenlund shot blocked by Liam O'Brien

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  4. 3rd·19:04

    Alexander Kerfoot Backhand saved by Marcus Hogberg

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  5. 3rd·19:03

    Alexander Kerfoot shot blocked by Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Liam O'Brien Wrist Shot saved by Marcus Hogberg

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  7. 3rd·18:33

    Michael Carcone shot blocked by Adam Pelech

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  8. 3rd·18:17

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Lawson Crouse

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  9. 3rd·17:51

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  10. 3rd·17:51

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  11. 3rd·17:49

    Michael Carcone Slap Shot saved by Marcus Hogberg

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  12. 3rd·17:28

    Adam Pelech hit Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  13. 3rd·17:23

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  14. 3rd·17:23

    Maxim Tsyplakov Tripping against Michael Carcone

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  15. 3rd·16:55

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  16. 3rd·16:55

    Nick Schmaltz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (14), Clayton Keller (23)

    · ·

    UTA 7·NYI 2

  17. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  18. 3rd·15:24

    Giveaway by Sean Durzi

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  19. 3rd·15:05

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  20. 3rd·15:05

    Off-side

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  21. 3rd·14:54

    Calum Ritchie Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  22. 3rd·14:38

    Calum Ritchie faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  23. 3rd·14:38

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  24. 3rd·14:36

    Ian Cole Slap Shot saved by Marcus Hogberg

    ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  25. 3rd·14:19

    Giveaway by Simon Holmstrom

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  26. 3rd·13:54

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  27. 3rd·13:54

    Dylan Guenther Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (9), Sean Durzi (9)

    · ·

    UTA 6·NYI 2

  28. 3rd·13:44

    Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 5·NYI 2

  29. 3rd·13:13

    Marshall Warren Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 5·NYI 2

  30. 3rd·12:52

    Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    UTA 5·NYI 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

21

Shots

22

40.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

10

24

Faceoffs W

25

14

Blocks

13

18

Giveaways

9

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA -125/NYI +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Bo HorvatNYI · C
    SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR