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NE#13 · American Football Conference
New England Patriots
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#8 of 32
Elo rating 1570.7 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2026-01-04 → 2026-02-08 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 28 vs MIA, 38-10, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 13 vs LAC, 16-3, 2026-01-11. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 12 vs HOU, 28-16, 2026-01-18. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 at DEN, 10-7, 2026-01-25. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 16 vs SEA, 13-29, 2026-02-08. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 1st of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 854 graded plays; the defense ranked 12th across 764.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
854 off plays · 764 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.163
Team EPA per play
1st of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.023
Team EPA per play allowed
12th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split854/764 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.16399+
1st of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.070 (27th)
Success50.2%97
2nd of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 42.8% (18th)
Explosive10.1%97
2nd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 5.8% (29th)
Dropbacks+0.28899+
1st of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.001 (23rd)
Rushes-0.04152
16th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.180 (30th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.02365
12th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.107 (31st)
Success45.9%35
21st of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 47.3% (29th)
Explosive7.3%55
15th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.0% (5th)
Dropbacks+0.00761
13th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.194 (32nd)
Rushes-0.06665
12th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.010 (25th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.163 · 2024 REG -0.070 · +0.233
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.023 · 2024 REG +0.107 · -0.130
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 854 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Drake Maye31 TD4,394
- 2Joshua Dobbs0 TD65
Rushing yards
- 1TreVeyon Henderson9 TD911
- 2Rhamondre Stevenson7 TD603
- 3Drake Maye4 TD450
- 4Antonio Gibson1 TD106
- 5Terrell Jennings1 TD73
Receiving yards
- 1Stefon Diggs4 TD1,013
- 2Hunter Henry7 TD768
- 3Kayshon Boutte6 TD551
- 4Mack Hollins2 TD550
- 5DeMario Douglas3 TD447
Receptions
- 1Stefon Diggs17 G85
- 2Hunter Henry17 G60
- 3Mack Hollins14 G46
- 4TreVeyon Henderson17 G35
- 5Kayshon Boutte14 G33
Total TDs
- 1Drake Maye17 G35
- 2TreVeyon Henderson17 G10
- 3Rhamondre Stevenson14 G9
- 4Hunter Henry17 G7
- 5Kayshon Boutte14 G6
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1TreVeyon Henderson180 car5.1
- 2Rhamondre Stevenson130 car4.6
- 3Drake Maye103 car4.4
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Drake Maye
612 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate79.7
- EPA / play+0.213
- Accuracy +7.1%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.213 EPA/play and 7.1% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Elite
avg rank 5.4
YDS
4th
Total yards
PASS
4th
Pass yards
RUSH
6th
Rush yards
PTS
4th
Points
TO
9th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
67% pass · 33% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
391vs 342 yds/GSlight edge
Passing yards
262vs 225 yds/GAbove avg
Rushing yards
129vs 117 yds/GSlight edge
Points scored
29.6vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg
Turnovers
0.80vs 0.90 TO/GSlight edge
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 8 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 28
Caleb Lomu
OT · Utah
RND 2 · PICK 55
Gabe Jacas
EDGE · Illinois
RND 3 · PICK 95
Elijah Raridon
TE · Notre Dame
RND 6 · PICK 196
Dametrious Crownover
OT · Texas A&M
RND 6 · PICK 212
Namdi Obiazor
LB · TCU
RND 7 · PICK 234
Behren Morton
QB · Texas Tech
RND 7 · PICK 245
Jam Miller
RB · Alabama
RND 7 · PICK 247
Quintayvious Hutchins
EDGE · Boston Col.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 8
Signed T Caleb Lomu to a contract.
- Jun 2
Placed TE Julian Hill on injured reserve.
- Jun 1
Acquired WR A.J. Brown from Philadelphia in exchange for a 2028 first-round draft pick and a 2027 fifth-round draft pick. Placed TE Julian Hill on injured reserve.
- May 21
Waived DE Niko Lalos.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 48
The attack
A.J. Brown
WR · #1
A. Vera-Tucker
G · #75
A. Rupcich
G · #67
B. Morton
QB · #15
B. Brown
C · #77
C. Wallace
OT · #70
C. Lomu
OT · #74
C
C. Dorner
WR · #88
C. Dippre
TE · #81
D. Crownover
OT · #68
D. Douglas
WR · #3
D. Maye
QB · #10
E. Chism III
WR · #86
E. Raridon
TE · #82
H. Henry
TE · #85
J. Westover
TE · #37
J. Rizy
OT · #64
J. Hurd
WR · #13
J. Miller
RB · #30
J. Hudson III
OT · #51
J. Wilson
C · #55
J. Franklin
TE · #80
J. Webb
WR · #29
J
J. Kibble
WR · #19
J. Morgan
G · #69
J. Hill
TE · #80
K. Boutte
WR · #9
K. Prentice
WR · #19
K
K. Dixon
WR · #83
K. Williams
WR · #18
L. Larison
RB · #34
L. Metz
OT · #72
M. Hollins
WR · #13
M. Bryant
OT · #52
M. Butler
G · #63
M. Onwenu
G · #71
M
M. Van Vooren
TE · #44
M. Moses
OT · #76
M. Montgomery
RB · #39
N. DeGennaro
WR · #23
R. Gilliam
FB · #44
R. Stevenson
RB · #38
R. Doubs
WR · #87
T. Arkin
TE · #84
T. Jennings
RB · #26
T. DeVito
QB · #16
T. Henderson
RB · #32
W. Campbell
OT · #66
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A. Gainer
LB · #99
B. Swinson
LB · #43
B. Crossley
CB · #39
B. Schooler
S · #41
C. Davis III
CB · #7
C. Muma
LB · #49
C. Canada
CB · #29
C. Woods
CB · #22
C. Barmore
DT · #90
C. Elliss
LB · #53
C. Gonzalez
CB · #0
C. Durden
DT · #94
C. Woodson
S · #4
D. Blay Jr.
DT · #96
D. Pettus
S · #24
D. Jones
DE · #5
E. Ponder
LB · #91
E. Gregory
DT · #95
G. Jacas
LB · #50
H. Landry III
LB · #2
I. Iton
DT · #62
J. Pharms Jr.
DT · #98
J. Luketa
LB · #42
J. Saunders Jr.
S · #23
J. Farmer
DT · #92
K.J. Britt
LB · #35
K. Prunty
CB · #21
K. Harris
CB · #36
K. Byard
S · #31
K. Jacobs
LB · #59
K. Vildor
CB · #28
K. Minor
CB · #19
L. Taylor III
DT · #93
M. Dial Jr.
CB · #27
M. Jones
CB · #25
M. Brown
S · #33
M. Williams
DT · #97
N. Obiazor
LB · #48
P. Manuma
S · #34
Q. Hutchins
LB · #45
R. Wilson
LB · #51
R. Spillane
LB · #14
X. Holmes
LB · #58
Special teams · 3
