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LAR
13Live8:21 - 3rd
LAC
7Updated 11:51 PM ET
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
8:21 - 3RD+6LAR
LAR
2-0
137
LAC
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
12 drives · 2 TD · 2 FG · 1 Fum · 2 Downs · 1 Miss · 3 PuntPuntLAR5p · 16y FumLAC2p · 2y FGLAR4p · 5y TDLAC2p · 65y DownsLAR17p · 79y PuntLAC3p · 7y TDLAR5p · 29y DownsLAC10p · 50y FGLAR13p · 61y MissLAC5p · 34y PuntLAC9p · 23y —LAR4p · 12y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
LAR
league avg
LAC
38.5
Pts / game
◀
23.5
21.9
404
Yds / game
◀
342
354
277
Pass yds / G
◀
225
233
127
Rush yds / G
◀
117
122
0.8
TO / G
◀
0.9
1.0
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
